FEBRUARY 21 — Another year, another Oscar ceremony is upon us to celebrate what the industry deems the best of American film-making, as voted by the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Half the fun in Oscar season is making predictions, so here’s me having fun!
Best Picture
It’s quite an anomaly to see not one, but three films getting nominated here that premiered way back earlier last year. Oscar voters are quite notorious for overlooking films that are not released during the awards season, but this year Boyhood, Whiplash (both premiered in January 2014 at Sundance) and The Grand Budapest Hotel (released in March 2014) bucked that trend big time with each of them scoring multiple nominations.
Boyhood seemed to have the momentum with wins at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs and Best Film awards from the New York and Los Angeles Critics Circle but with Birdman having won the top honours from the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild and Directors Guild, with all three of them having overlapping membership with the Academy, it’s looking very likely that the Best Picture Oscar will go to Birdman.
There’s also, however, every possibility that the excellent American Sniper, a stunning box-office success which was released very late into the awards season, can make a surprise late sprint and win it instead.
Will win: Birdman
Should win: American Sniper
Best Director
This, again, looks to be a straight fight between Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman and Richard Linklater for Boyhood. I would’ve preferred seeing Damien Chazelle (for Whiplash) or Clint Eastwood (for American Sniper) nominated here instead of Morten Tyldum (for The Imitation Game), as that would’ve made the Best Director race much more interesting, but as things stand, this could be one of those years where the losing favourite in the Best Picture category will win Best Director.
So if Birdman wins Best Picture, then Linklater will win Best Director and if Boyhood wins Best Picture, then Inarritu will win Best Director.
Will win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Should win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Best Actor
No matter what the Cumberbitches say, Benedict Cumberbatch is not going to win this year, not for The Imitation Game. If there is a battle here, it’s between sentimental favourite Michael Keaton, a 63-year-old first-time nominee who’s way overdue an Oscar acting award for his turn in Birdman and the outstanding technical and emotional brilliance of Eddie Redmayne’s performance as Stephen Hawking in The Theory Of Everything.
However, Redmayne has won Best Actor from the Screen Actors Guild, and the last 10 Best Actor winners have all won at the Screen Actors Guild too, so that pattern will probably repeat itself this year.
Will win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything)
Should win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything)
Best Actress
As close to a sure thing that this year’s Oscars will ever have, this award is Julianne Moore’s to lose the moment she got nominated. Marion Cotillard may have been superb in Two Days, One Night (for which she was nominated) and was even more stupendous in The Immigrant (for which she should have been nominated), but she’s going up against an actors’ actor who’s also a five-time nominee and who’s way overdue a win, so I wouldn’t bet on Moore losing this one.
Will win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Should win: Marion Cotillard (for a film she’s not nominated for, The Immigrant)
Best Supporting Actor
Another sure thing here, as the moment people saw J.K. Simmons spit out the many hilarious insults and put-downs that he’s been tasked to deliver in Whiplash, the Best Supporting Actor award is very much his already. Edward Norton of course did great in Birdman and Mark Ruffalo did even better in Foxcatcher, but you’d be nuts to bet against Simmons winning this.
Will win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Should win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress
This is not as sure a thing as the previous two categories, as all the nominees here have delivered excellent performances. But as much as I liked Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game and Emma Stone in Birdman, Patricia Arquette’s turn as the mother in Boyhood is just something very special, as her character goes through all sorts of phases in the span of 12 years and took us along with her every step of the way. And if that’s not great acting, then I don’t know what is.
Will win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Should win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Best Animated Feature
The biggest shock in all of the Oscars this year was the fact that The Lego Movie was not nominated here. Personally, I’d pick that over Big Hero 6 any day, having not seen only Song Of The Sea out of all the nominees. With The Lego Movie out of the way, surely this year’s award will go to How To Train Your Dragon 2. The Tale Of Princess Kaguya may be quite the lovely object, but if even The Wind Rises, reportedly the last film by animation legend Hayao Miyazaki, failed to challenge the big studios last year, I don’t think The Tale Of Princess Kaguya will stand much chance this year.
Will win: How To Train Your Dragon 2
Should win: The Lego Movie
Best Original Screenplay
Probably the only category in the whole Oscars where you’ll be rewarded for actually being “original”, as demonstrated by the win by Her last year. Birdman and Boyhood are also nominated here, as well as the excellently biting satire of Nightcrawler, but if we’re talking “original”, then it’s the quirk fest of The Grand Budapest Hotel that surely trumps the others on that front. Winning Best Screenplay at the BAFTAs and the Writers Guild Awards won’t hurt its chances too.
Will win: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Should win: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Cinematography
Birdman’s biggest gimmick is that it’s all seemingly done in one long continuous take, and having won the award from the American Society of Cinematographers, Emmanuel Lubezki looks set to win here for the second year running (he won last year for Gravity). Another sure thing? Probably, though I’d personally prefer Dick Pope’s gloriously beautiful lensing on Mr. Turner, and I wouldn’t mind seeing Darius Khondji nominated for his gorgeous work on The Immigrant as well.
Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Should win: Dick Pope (Mr. Turner)
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
