SINGAPORE, April 10 — The 46 per cent tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Vietnamese goods has shaken Vietnam’s economic future, pushing the country closer to China’s sphere of influence.
According to The Guardian, Vietnam had worked hard to strengthen ties with the US, reducing tariffs on American products and allowing SpaceX’s Starlink service.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh even joked in January that he would play golf at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home if it could benefit his country’s economy. However, the new tariffs are threatening to derail Vietnam’s growth and tarnish its relationship with Washington.
The move has also sparked fears across Southeast Asia, with other nations facing similar tariffs, including Cambodia, Laos, and Malaysia. Experts warn the US’s actions risk undermining its credibility in the region, especially as the region’s countries increasingly turn to China as a trade partner.
“The US’s unilateral, coercive approach undermines the trading system that these countries have thrived under,” Kevin Chen, an associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, was quoted saying.
With China already Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner, Vietnam’s growing economic ties with Beijing could be a natural consequence of Trump’s trade policies.
Trump’s tariffs, alongside cuts to foreign assistance programs like USAID, have further damaged the US’s image in the region. These moves have made China a more attractive partner for countries like Vietnam, which share long borders with China and can benefit from Beijing’s economic support without the same political demands that come with US partnerships.
Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US, now over US$123 billion, is one of the key drivers of the US’s tariffs. In response, the Trump administration may demand that Vietnam reduce its role in helping China bypass tariffs.
However, analysts suggest that Vietnam may increasingly turn to China for economic support, making the US relationship more dispensable.
Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College, noted that while Vietnam is trying to negotiate with the US, the tariffs could damage goodwill between the two countries. He stated, “This shows that, despite Vietnam’s regional importance, the US partnership is dispensable.”
As President Xi Jinping prepares to visit Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia later this month, China is expected to further strengthen its economic influence.
Analysts predict that Vietnam’s pivot to China could be inevitable as the US’s trade policies continue to push the region away.
With China poised to take advantage of the situation, Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, will likely have to navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape, choosing between a diminishing US relationship and China’s growing presence.
