When party interest supersedes national interest — Lim Sue Goan

OCT 23 — The Parliament convenes again from Monday and the opposition is poised to exert more pressure, including tabling a motion of no confidence against PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

It doesn’t matter whether the motion will be tabled by Opposition Leader Dtuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail or any other MPs, such motions or private bills will normally be put to the very last of the agenda.

For example Datuk Seri Hadi Awang’s private bill on hudud could be rejected by the Speaker so that it would not go to the debate even though there is still time for it in the Parliament.

Even if the motion of no confidence eventually gets to be debated in Dewan Rakyat, it will still need the support or absence of at least 30 MPs from Barisan Nasional in order to be passed. And this is with the assumption that no PAS reps will turn to support Najib.

Without a common understanding within Pakatan Harapan, chances for its success are quite bleak.

It will be equally hard for the opposition to block the passage of 2016 Budget, which should not be seen as equivalent to a vote of no confidence against Najib. Even if the Budget is eventually not passed, Najib can still stay in office.

In the meantime, it will also take some time for the new PAC chairman to relaunch the investigation on 1MDB.

As such, while the atmosphere of the current parliamentary session might be a little tensed up, the actual outcome might be insignificant. So, the key is no more with the Parliament but power struggle within Umno.

If the Mahathir-led Umno veterans succeed in persuading the supreme council, a power transition could be carried out within the party itself. But if they do not have the sufficient power to do this, they may need to join hands with opposition MPs to see it through at Dewan Rakyat.

While Najib is still firmly in charge, the pressure from within his party is picking up in momentum. An August survey by Merdeka Center shows that the support of BN administration among Malay voters has slipped to merely 31 per cent from 52 per cent in January.

Umno leaders should be very nervous by now if the survey reflects the reality, as Malay support base has always been the bedrock of Umno’s grip of power.

The survey was conducted in August. Things that happened during the past one or two months have had a severe impact on the ruling coalition such that overall support of Najib’s administration fell from 38 per cent in January to only 23 per cent, while the support of Chinese Malaysians plunged from 11 per cent to 5 per cent.

The Wall Street Journal reported early July that some RM2.6 billion was deposited into Najib’s personal bank accounts. This was followed by a cabinet reshuffle on July 28, when Muhyiddin was dropped as DPM while AG Abdul Gani Patail was terminated on the same day. Early August, two MACC officers were transferred to the prime minister’s department.

Many other incidents took place in September and October, including the Red Shirts rally and the “slap Chinese” statement. BN’s support rate is poised to see a further dip by now.

Najib’s sliding support could also be blamed on dwindling public trust towards the government. Najib said he wanted to sue WSJ for defamation but so far no solid action has been taken. The same goes for his threatened lawsuit against former MCA president Ling Liong Sik.

Nothing comes more important to political leaders than their integrity and reputation. Consequently, the impact from the RM2.6 billion scandal is way more lethal than mismanagement of 1MDB itself.

Economy is yet another major issue that plagues the ruling coalition. Studies show that 78 per cent of Malaysians are unhappy with the government over economic management, mainly due to rising living cost, unemployment and GST. Only 17 per cent approve the government’s handling of national economy.

If the national economy continues to deteriorate, it will be very difficult for BN to lift is support rate. The 2016 Budget is going to be the next big thing to watch, but Najib has said the Budget is going to be the “toughest” ever, given the shrinking national revenue due to plummeting oil prices.

With party interest above national interest, and with the opposition itself now in disarray, it is unlikely for a vote of no confidence to ever get its way.

Perhaps we need another by-election or the Sarawak state elections slated for early next year to let our political leaders see the real needs of the people.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.