SINGAPORE, Aug 22 — Although Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has declared that his political succession plan is on track, political analysts told TODAY that they do not foresee him handing over the role within a year because there are still “lots to do”, as one of them put it.
Several experts said they expected that the handover may happen around the next general election, which is due by November 2025, while others pointed out that the handover will not happen before the completion of the Forward SG Exercise — a year-long public consultation exercise led by the fourth generation (4G) leadership aimed at refreshing Singapore’s social compact.
Speaking at his 19th National Day Rally speech on Sunday (August 20), Lee said that leadership renewal is a “crucial task” in preparing for Singapore’s future. He previously said that he hoped to step down before his 70th birthday, which was in February 2022. However, this was disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
He also said that recent controversies that have drawn the public's attention will not delay the political succession plan.
He was referring to the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau's probe on Transport Minister S. Iswaran who was later interdicted from duty, and the resignations of former Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin and ex-Member of Parliament (MP) Cheng Li Hui following their affair.
“I promised Singaporeans that I would see the nation through the crisis, together with both the current and the 4G leadership,” Lee said. “Now Covid is behind us, and my succession plans are back on track.”
More and more, his job is to support the 4G team of leaders and their agenda, he added.
“I want to get them off to the best start possible. They are increasingly setting the pace.”
He also said that he has “every confidence” in prime minister-designate Lawrence Wong and his team.
Having a plan forward
Though experts said that it was hard to say when Lee will step down due to the lack of details provided so far, they agreed that this will probably not happen within the next year — in other words, Sunday’s National Day Rally is unlikely to be Lee’s last.
Associate Professor Eugene Tan, a former Nominated Member of Parliament and a law lecturer at the Singapore Management University, acknowledged that Lee’s speech may have “given the impression that the handing over of the baton is imminent”.
“But there are still lots to do in the meantime. The 4G-led Forward SG is about to be concluded. The implementation — even initially — would be a key plank of the PAP election manifesto,” he said.
Dr Felix Tan from the Nanyang Technological University, whose research interests cover Southeast Asian politics, agreed and said that the timing of Lee’s handover would hinge on when the Forward SG exercise is concluded.
Lee said on Sunday that the 4G team will soon wrap up the year-long exercise, which was launched in June 2022.
On why the handover may only happen after its conclusion, Dr Tan said that it is for closure and ensuring that the 4G leaders have a plan forward in the next couple of years after taking over the reins.
Before or after the next general election?
Former MP Charles Chong pointed to the last handover where Lee took over Goh Chok Tong’s role in 2004, three years after the 2001 general election.
“Perhaps the past precedent should give us a guide — the present prime minister takes care of the impending general election and a short time later, the next prime minister takes over,” he said.
Chong, who remains a member of the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), said that the current prime minister would be the better person to lead the election, being more experienced and having taken part in more elections.
Agreeing, Assoc Prof Tan said that it would seem that the handover will be shortly before or after the next election. If it were to happen after the next election, Lee would likely co-lead PAP with Wong into the electoral battles.
He added that Lee may regard one of his final responsibilities as securing reasonably strong support from voters for the next generation of leaders.
“There is no better way than to contest the next election as one where it is critical for the 4G team to secure a firm mandate at a time when PM Lee hands over the reins of government,” he said.
Inderjit Singh, also a PAP member and former MP, thinks that Lee will hand over the reins before the next General Election, with a new leadership team leading PAP during the election.
When asked why Lee may not hand over the role so soon, Singh said that current issues such as housing and cost of living will have to be tackled by the current leadership.
It will not be fair to pass the problem to the next one, he added.
Former Nominated MP Zulkifli Baharudin said that another consideration is whether Wong’s team is ready.
He said that the next prime minister will have to assemble a team of people consisting of Cabinet ministers and other senior appointments to not only take over, but to fight in the next election, which is not an easy feat.
“So it’s not just handing over one person to the other, this is the handing over of an entire team — a generational change.” ― TODAY
