SINGAPORE, June 9 — Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam is a “formidable” candidate in the upcoming presidential election, but this will not heighten the chances of a walkover, said political observers on Thursday .
They added that Tharman’s ethnicity is unlikely to be a factor in the upcoming poll and that in fact too much has been made of a candidate’s race to be a consideration for voters.
Nevertheless, an uncontested election or a huge win by Tharman, who is seen as close to the establishment, could inadvertently pose issues for the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), the analysts said.
Voters could question the need for a reserved election or become disillusioned with the presidential elections, they added.
On Thursday afternoon, Tharman announced that he will be running as a candidate for the upcoming presidential election, which is due to be held by Sept 13 this year.
The poll will not be reserved for any minority race, as opposed to the last one in 2017 which was reserved for ethnic Malays because there had not been a president from the racial group for the five most recent presidential terms prior.
Halimah Yacob was elected President in 2017 without a contest due to a lack of eligible candidates. She announced last week that she is not seeking re-election.
‘The perfect fit’
Political analysts said that Tharman was a strong candidate for the upcoming poll, given his popularity, experience and stature internationally and domestically.
Nydia Ngiow, managing director of consultancy BowerGroupAsia (Singapore), described Tharman as a “formidable candidate” and said his candidacy could be a move by the PAP to “seal the deal by putting forward their trump card”.
Tharman may be the one candidate for which Singaporeans can unanimously support for an uncontested election, she said.
Former PAP Member of Parliament (MP), Inderjit Singh, described Tharman as the “perfect fit” for the presidency and a tough candidate to beat.
“He is the best global ambassador for Singapore, being respected around the world as a stateman and as a person of high standing,” said Singh, adding that the senior minister is also a “people’s person”.
“He is very in tune with the man on the street and we have seen this based on the very high votes he has been able to garner at every general election.”
Tharman has held high profile posts at various international organisations including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee — the key policy forum of the IMF — for four years.
But while Tharman’s candidacy may deter others from throwing their name into the ring, Singh said that he still expected to see a contest for the presidential election.
Assistant Professor Elvin Ong from the National University of Singapore’s Department of Political Science, also felt that Tharman’s strong candidacy will not heighten the chances for a walkover.
“Other candidates might still want to put themselves forward and contest. The key question is ... what will they campaign on to differentiate themselves as a candidate from SM Tharman,” said Ong.
Associate Professor Eugene Tan, a law lecturer from the Singapore Management University, said that Tharman’s candidacy might “well trigger non-establishment hopefuls”, especially from the private sector, to consider running as well.
They could tap on the preference of voters who want a president who is not closely allied with the PAP Government, said Tan.
Dr Felix Tan, a political observer from the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), however said that Tharman’s standing might deter some potential candidates.
While he did not expect a walkover, Felix said that Singaporeans are likely to become disillusioned with the presidential elections if there are constant walkovers.
Said Felix: “I think that we would like to see more competition. I think very few (Singaporeans) would want to see yet another...walkover in the presidential election.”
The race factor
Political analysts believed that Tharman’s ethnicity will not be a factor in the election.
Eugene said that “too much” has been of made of Chinese voters preferring Chinese candidates.
“What has not been mentioned is that the preference kicks in (when) all things being equal.”
Ong also does not think that when candidates look at whether they have a chance of winning against Tharman, race will be a factor.
“A more fundamental problem is articulating how they might potentially be different as a president, and why voters should choose them instead because of this difference.”
Agreeing, Felix of NTU said that race would not be a factor in the choice of Singapore’s next president, as opposed to the country’s prime minister. This is based on survey findings, he added.
However, the analysts were mixed in their views on what Tharman’s candidacy will mean for the reserved election mechanism if he does win.
Under the mechanism, which first took effect in the 2017 presidential elections, the presidential election is reserved for a particular ethnic group if that group has not been represented in the position for five consecutive terms.
Felix said that if Tharman wins this election, it could result in questions about whether there is still a need for the reserved presidency.
Ong from NUS said that the reserved election mechanism was based on a theoretical assumption that ethnic voting “trumps all other considerations for Singaporean voters” which is not quite supported by social science research.
He added that if Tharman wins, it will offer partial evidence to suggest that this assumption was not robustly supported in the first place.
On the other hand, Singh, the former MP, said that the reserved election mechanism is still necessary to safeguard against the possibility of Chinese candidates constantly winning.
“Twenty years from now, we may not have another person like Tharman who can get elected. (The reserved election mechanism) is a good safeguard,” he said.
An independent president
Despite his close ties to the establishment, political observers are confident that Tharman will act independently of the Government if elected.
Ngiow said that while Tharman is unlikely to oppose or criticise decisions made by the PAP government, he has a wealth of experience managing Singapore’s reserves and could exercise greater scrutiny in an independent role.
Singh said that as a minister, Tharman has also “displayed very independent thinking” and was willing to make bold changes in the ministries he headed.
“I am confident he will exercise his independent thinking as a president, and it will serve Singapore well,” he said. — TODAY
