KUALA LUMPUR, June 13 — Malaysia’s cafe and restaurant operators are currently caught in a perfect storm, and the latest industry data suggests that the clouds are not clearing.
According to the latest report from Retail Group Malaysia (RGM), sales at cafes and restaurants plummeted by 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year.
This is a jarring reversal from the 3.1 per cent growth seen in the final quarter of 2025. Even more telling is the gap between hope and reality: as recently as March, F&B businesses had forecast a growth of 1.9 per cent for the quarter. Instead, performance crashed far below those optimistic projections.
The timing is also notable, occurring during a window that should have been a gold mine, a period encompassing Chinese New Year, Hari Raya Aidilfitri, and school holidays, all of which typically trigger a surge in dining-out spending.
While takeaway outlets, kiosks, and stalls showed slightly more resilience, they were not spared, with sales dipping 1.4 per cent over the same period.
The root of the crisis is a familiar but intensifying pressure: the soaring cost of doing business.
RGM directly links the downturn to the broader economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, which has sent fuel prices spiralling since February. With diesel prices in Peninsular Malaysia jumping 45 per cent and unsubsidised RON95 climbing 39 per cent between March and June, the industry has been hit where it hurts most.
In F&B, nearly every single input is sensitive to fuel costs: from the transport of raw ingredients and packaging to staff commutes and delivery logistics. For many operators, the impact was immediate and severe.
A precarious balancing act
Operators are now trapped in a precarious balancing act with no easy exit. Some have been forced to hike menu prices to protect their margins, only to see footfall drop as diners become increasingly price-conscious.
Others have opted for “shrinkflation” — quietly reducing portion sizes or switching to cheaper ingredients to keep prices steady. It is a gamble that risks alienating loyal customers if the drop in quality becomes too obvious.
The human cost of this squeeze is already becoming visible on the streets. RGM reports that during the second quarter, several independent operators were forced to shut their doors entirely, while major chains declined to renew leases for underperforming outlets in shopping malls.
This wave of closures and consolidation is a grim signal that the struggle is moving beyond the balance sheet and into the real world of vacant storefronts.
Crucially, the people running these businesses see no immediate relief. RGM’s data reveals a bleak outlook: cafe and restaurant operators are forecasting a further decline of 2.3 per cent for the second quarter of 2026, while the takeaway and stall sector expects another drop of 0.8 per cent.
This pessimism is compounded by a broader inflationary tide. Consumer prices for “food away from home” rose 2.6 per cent in April alone, the sharpest increase in the entire F&B category.
With the Malaysian government revising its full-year inflation forecast upward to between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent, operators are entering the second half of the year with costs rising faster than their revenue.
For the average Malaysian diner, the symptoms are already here: smaller portions, higher bills, or a noticeable dip in quality at their favourite spots.
For the industry, the report suggests the sector will be under a sustained siege, where survival now depends on how well they can navigate a cost environment that shows no sign of easing.
