KUALA LUMPUR, May 11 — Despite the recent reimposition of nationwide pandemic containment measures by the federal government, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its growth projection for Malaysia’s economy at between 6 per cent and 7.5 per cent in 2021.

BNM governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus said the impact on growth was expected to be less severe than that experienced last year when the government imposed the first nationwide movement control order (MCO).

She said the major difference between the previous MCO in 2020 and the third movement restriction measures dubbed MCO 3.0 is that almost all economic sectors are now allowed to operate.

“Overall, the growth recovery will benefit from better global demand, increased public and private sector expenditure as well as continued policy support. 

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“Going forward, Malaysia is well positioned to continue benefiting from stronger global economic and trade activities. 

“While the growth outlook continues to be shaped by developments surrounding the pandemic, the implementation of containment measures which are mainly aimed at curbing social activities and allow almost all economic sectors to operate, would minimise the impact on economic activity,” she said during a virtual press briefing of BNM’s Economic and Financial Developments in Malaysia in the First Quarter of 2021.

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin announced yesterday that Malaysia will enter yet another nationwide MCO beginning May 12 until June 7 necessitated by rapidly rising Covid-19 case numbers.

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In the aforementioned briefing, BNM said Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a smaller contraction at -0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 (1Q21) compared to 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (4Q20) despite the imposition of the second MCO.

Furthermore, Nor Shamsiah said BNM expected the implementation of MCO 3.0 would not significantly impact the overall growth trajectory to the extent of the -17.1 per cent growth seen in the second quarter of 2020.

During the virtual briefing earlier, Nor Shamsiah said the growth would be reinforced by the recovery in domestic demand as the index of retail trade turned around to register a positive growth of 9.6 per cent in March 2021 after being in negative territory in the preceding five months.

She reiterated that the growth forecasts for 2021 had already factored in the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic, including potential resurgence in new cases and guided containment measures.

“These uncertainties were reflected by the bank’s wide forecast range of 150 basis points, which is between 6 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

“When we came out with the forecast we were already mindful of the uncertainty of the pandemic. This includes resurgence of Covid-19 cases and tightening of containment measures.

“The assumption behind the growth forecast was also conservatively projected in that there will be no interstate travel until the end of this year and our international borders remain closed for foreign travel throughout 2021,” she added.

A copy of the briefing can be accessed from BNM’s website here.