RCI on Memali: Who will benefit, and who will not

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 27 — Last Thursday, the prime minister said Putrajaya will not rule out the possibility of holding a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) on the Memali incident which took place over 30 years ago.

However, Datuk Seri Najib Razak said the government would only decide after gauging public sentiment on the matter.

As it is, there is an ongoing RCI on the foreign exchange scandal that allegedly cost Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) millions in the 1990s.

Both incidents took place during the tenure of former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who now helms the Pakatan Harapan federal opposition coalition.

So who stands to benefit (or not) should an RCI on Memali happen?

What is the Memali incident?

On November 19, 1985, a group of police officers laid siege on the village of Memali in Baling, Kedah. It resulted in the deaths of 14 civilians, four policemen, and the arrest of hundreds under the Internal Security Act (ISA).

The officers allegedly conducted their operation under the orders of then deputy prime minister Tun Musa Hitam.

The target was Ibrahim Mahmud, a PAS leader whom the government accused of leading a “deviationist” sect in Islam. He was popularly known as Ibrahim Libya and was among those killed in the incident.

This put a huge strain on the relationship between PAS and Umno back then. PAS called those who died in the incident “martyrs”, while the government insisted Ibrahim’s supporters acted violently towards the authorities. They even released footage of a police officer writhing in pain while awaiting help.

The calls for an RCI were primarily backed by both PAS and Umno leaders.

Who will benefit?

Survivors and families of those who perished will welcome the RCI even though the incident took place 32 years ago.

The memory is still fresh in some people’s minds and the latest mention of the incident was at a recent forum featuring Dr Mahathir which in turn led to a call for an RCI.

In 2014, Dr Mahathir claimed that he was actually in Kuala Lumpur when the incident took place, contrary to claims that he was overseas when it happened. This raised fresh doubts about the chronology of events that led to the incident.

Either way, the people of Kampung Memali want to know what actually happened on that day and more importantly, the individuals accountable for the incident.

Most recently, the relationship between PAS and Umno suffered when the latter decided against pursuing amendments to the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965, which PAS wanted.

However, with Memali, both parties have once again found a common ground. PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang is likely to see the RCI not only as a way for those affected to get some closure but also as recognition that this tragedy happened to PAS back in the 1980s.

The RCI would put PAS front and centre in the spotlight again and Abdul Hadi and his fellow PAS leaders will take credit for helping to bring an issue that is close to the hearts of the PAS grassroots to national attention.

Faisal Hazis, associate professor at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, said that the RCI would be seen as a victory of sorts for Abdul Hadi who seems to be steering his party towards closer co-operation with Umno.

However, Faisal warned that the Memali issue is a continuation of using race and religion in a bid to shore up Malay votes ahead of the upcoming general elections.

The prime minister would definitely benefit from an RCI of Memali as it would definitely raise fresh questions that Dr Mahathir would be expected to answer.

If the testimonies and findings during the RCI are damaging to the former premier, this could influence voting at the next general elections.

“It is obvious that Umno and BN are targeting Dr Mahathir and his past administration,” Faisal said, referring to ruling coalition Barisan Nasional.

“End of the day, votes divided among the opposition will benefit the incumbent government.”

And the losers?

Dr Mahathir’s crusade against the prime minister and Umno has resulted in his own legacy being repeatedly questioned. The Memali incident is one of the blots during his time as prime minister, and those affected still blame him for it.

The findings during the RCI could erode Malay support for Dr Mahathir, as Ibrahim Mahmud was seen as a religious leader with a strong following. His role, if any, in ordering the operations will be scrutinised further.

However, the vote base for Dr Mahathir’s party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) is unlikely to be affected by the outcome of the RCI.

“The PPBM target are primarily existing Umno supporters, and the Memali issue is not a big one for them,” Faisal said.

“The Memali incident mainly concerns PAS supporters and the people generally have a faint recollection of the incident. However, in marginal seats, the split in Malay votes could be crucial,” he added.

Pakatan is seeking to finally be seen as a coalition after appointing Dr Mahathir as its chairman, but questions into his past administration are bound to continue if the Memali RCI takes place.

With the RCI on the BNM forex scandal currently ongoing, the RCI could continue to cast a shadow on the coalition’s own efforts to shore up support ahead of GE14.

While it is gearing to attack Najib’s administration, it now faces the probability of having to defend Dr Mahathir’s past actions.

Even though the current Umno leaders are casting blame on the past administration for the incident, there are Umno leaders who have been involved in some capacity with both administrations who are still active in the party.

“At the end of the day, it is a BN government that was in power when the incident took place. And there will be other leaders who will also face scrutiny,” Faisal pointed out. “This could open a can of worms.”

And that may mean casualties on both sides of the political divide.