KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 20 — Barisan Nasional (BN) winning a two-thirds majority in Parliament and PAS losing all their parliamentary seats is a possibility in the 14th general election, according to a preliminary survey by the Invoke Centre for Policy Initiatives (I-CPI).

In several simulation exercises carried out by I-CPI for three-cornered fights, it found that BN could win 168 federal seats while Pakatan Harapan (and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) take 54 seats, leaving PAS with nothing.

But this scenario was contingent on several factors: if those who did not vote in the 13th general election continued abstaining from voting and that Chinese voter support for all parties remained at the same level as during last year’s Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections.

Another scenario I-CPI found was that BN could win GE14 with 130 seats, while Pakatan Harapan and PPBM win 92 seats, leaving PAS with zero seats as well. This is possible if fence-sitters continued to abstain from voting and if Chinese voters continued the same voting pattern as GE13.

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“In a three-cornered contest, PAS is likely to lose all of its existing parliamentary and state seats,” Invoke strategic director Shaun Kua said during a closed-door briefing on the preliminary survey results last night.

In the last general election, BN won 133 out of the 222 parliamentary seats.

Another simulation also found that Pakatan Harapan and PPBM could win the next general election with a simple majority (126 seats) provided that half of those who did not vote in the previous election supported them, and if Chinese voter support for the opposition coalition remained the same as GE13.

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Another precondition is that Pakatan Harapan must also be able win over at least 38 per cent of PAS supporters nationwide.

Out of the 104,340 people it polled, 41 per cent said they would vote for BN, nearly a quarter or 24 per cent said they would vote for Pakatan Harapan while 21 per cent said they would vote for PAS in the event of a three-cornered fight.

A total of 14 per cent said they would abstain from voting.