MAY 7 — On 16th March, Imperial College had launched its report titled Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand on its findings with implications for both UK’s Boris Johnson and US President Donald Trump.
The report projected that in the case of inaction, with no mitigation measures at all, the Imperial Team would expect 80 per cent of the population to be infected, resulting in 510,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the US — and that’s without accounting for the impact on mortality of health systems getting overwhelmed.
The report based on epidemiological modelling had considered the impact of five different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) (case isolation in the home, voluntary home quarantine, social distancing of those over 70 years of age, social distancing of entire population and closure of schools and universities) implemented individually and in combination and describes the cost of inaction; in the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, the team would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately three months.
The 30-member Imperial team set out two fundamental strategies in dealing with Covid-19: “mitigation,” in which the aim is not to entirely disrupt transmission to but slow its impact; and “suppression,” which aims to reduce the rate of transmission so dramatically that each case generates less than one additional infection and the disease is stopped in its tracks. When examining mitigation strategies, the report assumes policies are in force for three months, other than social distancing of those over the age of 70 which is assumed to remain in place for one month longer. Suppression strategies are assumed to be in place for 5 months or longer.
The team’s results demonstrate that it will be necessary to layer multiple interventions, regardless of whether suppression or mitigation is the overarching policy goal. However, suppression will require the layering of more intensive and socially disruptive measures than mitigation.
The report outlined that to avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available, expected between 12-18 months, to immunise the population. Hence a premature ending of mitigation or suppression is the risk of a second wave of infection.
Presently a few countries including the UK, with scientists at Imperial College and Oxford University are rushing to develop a vaccine for Covid-19
Thus arising from the advisory from SAGE [the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies], in which Imperial College is a member, and the findings of this report referred to as a searing report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and a bombshell report by Bloomberg Opinion, the UK Government had an immediate change in its strategy on Covid-19 influencing Boris Johnson to announce a nationwide lockdown for the United Kingdom on 26th March 2020 .
Recommendations for Malaysia
The Malaysian Government had introduced Movement Controlled Order (MCO), effectively a nation-wide lockdown, starting 18th March and extended this thrice each for a period of two weeks, till 12th May, after reviewing the status of MCO and recommendations by the National Security Council (NSC) and Ministry of Health (MoH) on Covid-19.
The recent decision on 10th April to lift some restrictions including allowing barbers and hairdressing salons to be opened and just recently to allow more businesses to gradually resume their operations during the third phase of the MCO with the aim to increase the operating capacity of the economy and thus, mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19 had received comments of grave concern both from the Malaysia Hairdressing Association and the general public, with many appealing to the Government to please accord highest priority for the rakyat’s health and life instead of to business and economics at this critical juncture.
As it is vital that our decisions must be based on relevant and science-based facts and projections, I would like to strongly propose for the Government to request a copy of this report from the UK and for Malaysia to establish a collaboration with the UK facilitating Malaysian scientists and researchers to collaborate with the team from Imperial College to conduct epidemiological modelling based on Malaysia’s experience to project/estimate as accurate as possible the best duration for lockdown and safest period to lift MCO restrictions, preventing a second wave of the virus from harming our citizens and nation and to ensure the safety of all Malaysians.
Last but not least Malaysia is p[eased/honoured that Malaysian-born UK-based trainee surgeon, Dr Nur Amalina Che Bakri has joined a team of scientist at the Imperial College in London to find a vaccine in the battle against Covid-19.
*Sheriffah Noor Khamseah Al-Idid bt Dato Syed Ahmad Idid is an Innovation & Nuclear Advocate and alumna of Imperial College, University of London.
**This is the personal opinion of the writer and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
