PETALING JAYA, March 6 — Pakatan Harapan (PH) is targeting Johor, the birthplace of Umno and a Malay bastion, on the belief that it has both Penang and Selangor in the bag.
With Chinese majority seats such as Gelang Patah and Kulai considered secure, the pact is banking on Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) and its president, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, to penetrate the Malay heartland.
However, the pact is likely to steer clear of Johor Baru that is held by Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad, who has made the seat he won in 1978 virtually his own.
Whether it is hard work or charisma, Shahrir was secure even when the political tsunami swept in 2008.
Shahrir has built a following among the Malays there, and used this to become a household name nationwide, developing a reputation for being a “naughty boy” during the Mahathir administration along the way.
Another seat the pact will likely forego is the neighbouring Pulai, held by Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed, the son of the late Tan Sri Mohamed Rahmat, a prominent Umno secretary-general known for his creativity in uniting Malaysians of all races when he was information minister.
Nur Jazlan has held the seat for the past three terms, similarly surviving the 2008 and 2013 tsunamis.
It is said voters still remember his late father’s deeds, which has kept Nur Jazlan safe.
Young voters also consider the deputy home minister “rakyat friendly”, which will require his would-be challenger to at least meet this standard.
That leaves Muar and Batu Pahat, both which are considered the epitome of the Malay heartland and the prime targets for the planned PH invasion.
Here, Muhyiddin and his PPBM must lead the way as DAP will be busy with the defence of Penang while PKR will have its hands full in Selangor.
Nearby is Pagoh, the Malay majority constituency held by Muhyiddin, but also where the PH incursion could begin to unravel.
While Muhyiddin is tasked with leading the vanguard into the Malay heartland, rumour is that he may abandon Pagoh for Muar.
The former deputy prime minister is said to be contemplating the switch as there is concern that his hold on the constituency is not as secure as thought.
While there is no open dissent or mutiny in the area, there is worry that the calm is masking an undercurrent of discontent, one that could sweep Muhyiddin away once the full might of Umno’s vaunted election machinery is brought to bear.
The Umno instrument is still considered the most formidable machinery in the country, one with which Muhyiddin will be familiar enough to know he cannot withstand it alone if he decides to defend Pagoh.
Muhyiddin must also grapple with PAS’s polls machinery, which is said to rival even Umno's.
While he might tap PKR for support, the party’s effectiveness is limited to just a few constituencies, none of which include Pagoh.
All this makes the Muar seat won by Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Razali Ibrahim in 2013 by a 1,300 or so majority a tempting proposition for Muhyiddin.
Moving to Muar would also allow him to tap on DAP’s support, but the move would essentially be conceding the battle for Johor.
With PPBM still to prove its mettle or worth, Muhyiddin will be under pressure to stay in Pagoh, where the risk is great, but the reward, greater still.
Winning Pagoh could set PH on its way to an unlikely victory in Johor that would wound Umno beyond imagination.
While implausible, BN should take note of the winds of change that are blowing.
Unless it addresses the growing clamour for “people friendly” candidates to win back its support in the state, it may find itself staring at a monumental upset here.
