KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 15 — Resentment is building up against the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) following the recent spate of price hikes and subsidy cuts that will return to haunt the coalition in the next general election, political analysts said.
The current government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s rollback of the subsidy on rice — a staple in this Southeast Asian nation — while at the same time raising toll rates and public transport fares has triggered a backlash, even among the demographic group seen as its biggest supporters, the low-income Malays.
But the 14th General Election is only due in 2018 — and the prime minister has indicated he plans to serve out his full term — which, the pundits say will give the BN sufficient time to mitigate the damage through feel-good policies that can be dished out in three more Budgets.
“The harsh political reality is that Najib’s fate is to be decided by Umno and Umno alone, and not by any mounting discontent of the general population at the moment,” Dr Oh Ei Sun, political analyst with Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Relation, told Malay Mail Online when contacted last week.
“General election is a few years away, and some sort of sweeteners could always be added in the budget closest to the election. And Malaysian public forgets and forgives easily, especially if the general economy turns better in coming years,” he added.
Toll rates for all 18 highways crisscrossing the Klang Valley went up October 15, while fares for the KTMB commuter trains will rise by 4 sen a kilometre from December 2.
The capital city’s other rail services too have announced a restructuring of their fares, which will see some stops become cheaper, although others will also be pricier.
Professor Shaharudin Badaruddin from Universiti Selangor said the disquiet sparked by these announcements had helped create a new “coalition of opposition” that included an unlikely alliance with right wing Malay groups, which appeared to have distant itself from Umno, the BN’s anchor party immediately after the 13th general election two years ago.
“The rise in living costs is definitely an issue that can be exploited by the opposition and it will also create a new coalition of opposition that include Malay NGOs, which have begun to shun Umno as the party is no longer deemed to be sympathetic of the common Malay,” he told Malay Mail Online.
Last month Najib tabled a Budget that analysts said was apparently intended to placate the brewing discontent within the ruling party’s core voter base, announcing the increase in salaries of government workers and a hike cash handouts under the Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia programme.
Just a week before the 2016 Budget was unveiled, a Merdeka Center survey showed support for the government among the country’s ethnic Malay majority had sunk to 31 percent in August from the 52 percent in January. Support among the minorities, notably the Chinese, was even lower.
Shaharuddin said the popularity dip may force Umno to resort to more race-baiting to sustain power, a common fallback tactic employed since the BN unprecedentedly lost its two-third majority in Election 2008, and has since escalated as the opposition’s influence strengthened.
But while the UniSel lecturer doubted the effectiveness of the strategy given that the Malay hardline factions, including those in Umno, have not benefited much from the Najib administration, he did not state if this could result in BN’s ouster.
Center for Policy Initiatives director Lim Teck Ghee concurred that the toll and transportation fares hike was a cause for concern for the BN government but it is unlikely to lead to more cash handouts or subsidy increase.
“The Goods and Services Tax collection will provide a cushion and some leeway for them to make adjustments to appease the public but we can expect the status quo in subsidy reduction to remain until closer to the election,” he told Malay Mail Online.
