MARCH 11 — While Bersatu frets about a future without Umno, DAP faces an equally daunting task to pick its strategic place and partners.
PKR’s increasingly erratic and Amanah has grown zero per cent since 2018. The term “no permanent enemies in politics” has been ominously passed around these days.
As it stands, inside Pakatan Harapan Plus in its present shape, DAP’s unlikely to perform close to the 42 federal seats win three years ago.
If Bersatu-Umno-PAS coalesce as a force, and PKR and Amanah remain in their slump, alarm bells will go off for DAP.
The idea DAP carries the other two partners into a general election, as evidenced by its previous examples of being boxed into a narrative, is what the party desperately wants to avoid. It can hurt DAP’s overall chances rather than assist.
Critically mindful, the next two general elections determine DAP’s long-term viability as a major power.
It does not want to return to pre-2008 numbers — 10 and 12 MPs respectively in 1999 and 2004 — but rather build momentum from its 2013 and 2018 gains.
Even more it is forewarned by history. Poor choices decades back consigned fast-rising Gerakan and People’s Progressive Party to the children’s table, and DAP would not want to follow suit.
Therefore, for self-preservation, all options are on the table.
The numbers
The worst-case polling day scenario is 25 parliamentary seats. It holds 30 safe bets — Penang (seven), Perak (six), Selangor (four), KL (four), Negeri Sembilan (two), Melaka (one), Johor (two), Sarawak (2) and Sabah (two).
Those comforts come from MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP’s collective loss of relevance. We live in a time where their leaders not only anonymous nationally, but without the necessary credentials to even be infamous.
DAP faces no lively personalities, just some demographic concerns.
For example, in Teluk Intan.
A seesawing seat [1999 (BN), 2004 (BN), 2008 (DAP), 2013 (DAP), 2014 (BN) and 2018 (DAP)] where the only constant is Gerakan’s ex-president Mah Siew Keong contested them all this century.
However, since 2018 Mah has stepped down as Gerakan president and active politics. More so, Gerakan left BN and is now in a weird satirical relationship with Perikatan Nasional.
Even with graphs and markers, it is impossible to chart the relationships among Bersatu and the various parties and individuals propping it up as government.
So clear run for DAP?
After all, DAP Perak chief Nga Kor Ming is incumbent and favourite.
But Teluk Intan’s spread equally as the state seats of Changkat Jong (firmly BN and Malay-slanted) and Pasir Bedemar (DAP dominated). Couple that with Teluk Intan turning on DAP in 2014, a surprise is possible due to demographics.
This fear is real in Labis, Bentong, Raub, Segambut, Beruas and Kampar, not because MCA and MIC can deliver but because PKR-Amanah fail to support DAP adequately.
Altered positions
Let’s trace DAP’s evolution these past five decades.
Since its entry separate from PAP, the Malaysian spinoff relied on overwhelmingly Chinese majority seats for victory. Your typical Bukit Bintang and Seremban.
Token, but a powerful token. Their mission, to fight as the opposition in Dewan Rakyat. Bluster, pride and parliamentary ejections. Co-starring, the Internal Security Act (ISA) and jail cells.
At times their fortunes rose, noticeable but not drastic.
Then 1998 happened which changed DAP but not before giving it cold lessons in coalition politics.
There was Malay discontent before GE1999, towards the Mahathir Mohamad administration following Anwar Ibrahim’s Umno sacking. A new player, PKR, and PAS won a substantial number of seats but third partner DAP, albeit a loose arrangement, gained little.
In fact, the chaos over DAP’s position on Islam by its new association with PAS caused horrific defeats for legends Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh.
The Islamists were DAP’s nightmare.
Sensing blood, Mahathir thereafter almost grounded the rocket by declaring Malaysia an Islamic country — unconstitutional but he did it — to amplify the disagreements between DAP and PAS over it.
DAP left the coalition Barisan Alternatif to end the philosophical quandary.
Lim Kit Siang wrote Barisan Alternatif and Islamic State (2001) to explain DAP’s position. Typical Kit Siang to think his opponents would read.
From then on, DAP became careful about partners.
Which explains that despite enormous groundswell of support following Bersih and Hindraf in 2007, DAP did not form a formal coalition with PKR and PAS for GE2008. In, but not completely in, they won 28 seats.
It’s often overlooked that the first iteration of Pakatan Rakyat was formalised after the 2008 general election, not before.
This new period, the Pakatan era, focussed on winning federal power. They failed as a repeat trio (PKR, DAP and PAS) in 2013, but a reassembly won as a foursome (PKR-DAP-Amanah-Bersatu) in 2018.
It crossed the line but Pakatan remained embattled. The persistence to move up Anwar as PM over Mahathir quickly destabilised the coalition and assisted in the dramatic collapse of the Pakatan government.
Post-2020
Today, DAP aims higher.
The new millennium gave them three valuable lessons in succession.
2000-2008: More partners do not equate automatically to more success. PAS’ Islamism hung around its neck seeking to drown DAP as it alienated its base.
2008-2018: A viable coalition is difficult and requires patience. Acquiesce at times, but do not surrender core principles like secularism. Two great boons, the opportunity to learn upfront about the vagaries of Malay politics working with PKR and PAS — and later Bersatu, and second, to display administrative chops in two states and their corresponding local councils. So many Malaysians today, even if they do not support DAP, see the party as those capable of governing, not just those upset about Malay rule.
2018 to now: DAP enjoyed being in government and found a taste for it. However, playing supporting act to PKR and Bersatu’s powerplay despite being the second largest block in Parliament, paralysed them from affecting the situation. Naïve, they just sat and hoped the Malay spined parties do right by them. The government collapsed. They benefitted from being adaptive but stalled on action because they were inexperienced.
The present permutations are crazy. There are all kinds of discussions happening at all levels.
It knows right now, it can’t do it alone and get the same results it’s had. But with whom?
Which brings us to Umno.
Umno’s caught in two minds. Option A, retain tradition and allow MCA and MIC to contest their usual seats and let them lose most of them.
Option B, ignore MCA and MIC, contest as Umno and effectively lose Barisan Nasional and the right to call the coalition multicultural. But they’ll fare better than MCA and MIC in those seats, even in defeat to DAP.
Or, go for the unthinkable, Option C. Pair up with DAP and let them win and still retain a revamped BN (Umno-DAP) as a multicultural force.
The recent co-operation between Umno and DAP in Perak may be just the tip of the iceberg. Though, DAP would be foolish to cast aside PKR and Amanah, after all that the three have gone through together.
But DAP is equally aware that when winds change direction, any one of the parties, friends or foes, are capable of caricaturing DAP as the devil to win an election.
Malaysian politics has not reached the point where any of the other parties hold on to principles and refuse to throw DAP under the bus.
Throw before you are thrown? We shall see.
I do sense DAP might prefer to initiate rather than wait around for others to set the tone. Watch out for this space.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
