DECEMBER 4 — Last week, nine armoured vehicles — Terrex Infantry Carrier Vehicles belonging to the Singapore Armed Forces to be more precise — were detained by the Hong Kong Customs and Excise department. They were transiting through Hong Kong’s port, on their way back to Singapore after completing a training exercise in Taiwan.
Hong Kong authorities haven’t clearly stated the reasons for the detention beyond a “Customs inspection.” But the seizure of another state’s military vehicles is not routine, and given the parties involved — Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and of course the People’s Republic of China — this is a matter of extreme sensitivity.
Singapore has long managed a brilliant balancing act on the world stage; somehow our Little Red Dot has built a very substantial military, become a global finance hub and kept just about every major power on its side.
Crucially we have (since the 80s, though Singapore only formally recognised the PRC in 1990) maintained a very close and economically beneficial relationship with China while also retaining close business and military ties to Taiwan.
The current Terrex Saga has the potential to upset this extremely delicate balance.
While it is not known whether the vehicles were detained to signal Beijing’s displeasure at Singapore’s training arrangements with Taiwan or simply on account of misfiled paper work, it only takes one errant comment from an official on either side (a quick jab at nationalism from Singapore or a verbal swat at the little gnat that is Singapore from the PRC side) to throw a decades-old but fragile co-habitation into chaos.
As the issue drags on, the vehicles have now been detained for over a week, it becomes harder to keep a lid on things like enraged netizens, newspapers or opposition politicians.
Given that Singapore and China have a long history of co-operation (bilateral trade now stands at near US$100 billion or RM445.5 billion) it seems likely that in this case officials will very likely secure the release of our war machines and the return to the status quo.
In the longer term, however, the episode does highlight the fact that Singapore’s long-standing balancing-act regarding Taiwan and China will eventually become untenable.
Globally positions are becoming more extreme. China and Russia are growing more assertive and the US is ever more defensive of its long-standing hegemony. The South China Sea — and the conflicting territorial claims that bedevil the relationship between China and many of our Asean neighbours are another potential fork in Singapore-PRC relations.
In the midst of these tensions, Taiwan is a well-known powder keg. One of the pillars of the People’s Republic’s foreign policy is the effective negation of Taiwan — the refusal to accord it or to allow anyone else to accord it a status beyond that of a Chinese province.
Which makes Singapore’s extensive military co-operation with the island an obvious sore point. On the other hand, Singapore’s defence, cultural, family and business ties with Taiwan are deep.
Taiwanese officers effectively founded and led Singapore’s fledgling Air Force and Navy in the 70s and our bilateral training agreements are the pillars of our military strength. Of course, Beijing has always known about our deep co-operation with its “renegade province” and turned a blind eye.
The question the Terrex saga begs, however, is for how much longer?
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
