KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 18 — The ringgit is expected to resume its rally and potentially reach its strongest level against the US dollar in nearly a year, according to analysts who cite dovish central bank policies and fiscal commitments as key drivers.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. predicts the ringgit will strengthen to 4.15 per dollar in the fourth quarter due to anticipated central bank easing, while Malayan Banking Bhd. Forecasts 4.10 by December, Bloomberg reported.
MUFG Bank Ltd. Expects a 1.5 per cent gain from current levels, attributing this to improved export competitiveness following a US tariff deal with Malaysia.
The ringgit’s recovery from its April low has recently stalled, but upcoming inflation data could revive expectations for Bank Negara Malaysia rate cuts and stimulate bond inflows.
Global funds invested a record US$4.3 billion into Malaysian bonds in the second quarter, anticipating rate cuts from Southeast Asia’s last holdout central bank, which delivered a 25-basis-point reduction in July.
Christopher Wong of OCBC said that a stronger ringgit depends on sustained foreign inflows and the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, with his bank projecting another rate cut this year.
Last month, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced an ambitious five-year growth plan through 2030, including a one-time RM2.8 billion stimulus package featuring cash handouts and reduced fuel prices.
The government has simultaneously pursued fiscal discipline through measures such as cutting diesel subsidies and expanding the sales and service tax.
Matthew Ryan of Ebury Partners warns that prolonged trade uncertainty and potential higher tariffs could moderately impact Malaysia’s economy and trigger a more pronounced ringgit selloff.
The ringgit closed at 4.2120 on Friday, with MUFG’s Lloyd Chan pointing out government-led structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity and fiscal discipline as foundational factors for the currency’s strength.
