KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 6 — Several research houses have projected the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow between five and 5.1 per cent in 2015, as a result of the many obstacles that it will face this year.
The obstacles included the impact of the Goods and Services Tax, low oil prices and its effects on government revenue, as well as, uncertainties in major economies, especially in the Eurozone.
“This would likely point to a lower trajectory for exports growth, which we project to be around three per cent this year,” Kenanga Research said in a note today.
Last December, exports rose to 2.7 per cent following a 2.1 per cent growth in the previous month, driven by the demand for electrical and electronics products (E&E) from the United States and Eurozone.
The research house said the weaker ringgit also helped boost exports further.
Meanwhile, another research house, Affin Hwang Capital said that the E&E sector would continue to enjoy healthy demand and expected Malaysia's total trade to grow between four and 4.5 per cent this year.
“Malaysia's trade balance is likely to be in surplus of between RM65 billion and RM70 billion in 2015, albeit, slower than the RM83.1 billion recorded in 2014.
“With lower commodity prices, we expect the current account surplus to likely narrow in 2015, but will remain substantial, estimated to drop from RM53 billion (5.1 per cent of Gross National Income) in 2014 to around RM45 billion (4.0 per cent of GNI),” it said.
Affin Hwang Capital expected the real GDP growth to slow from 5.3 per cent, year-on-year, in the second half of 2014 to 4.5 per cent in the first half of this year, before recovering to 5.5 per cent in the second half. — Bernama
