KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 5 — AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd has maintained Malaysia’s full-year 2015 gross domestic product growth (GDP) forecast at five per cent with a downside risk amid a challenging external backdrop.
The research house also anticipates a narrowing of the current account surplus-to-GDP to around two per cent this year from five per cent estimated last year as demand headwinds struck advanced economies and China.
“China’s January manufacturing index entered a contractionary phase while major advanced economies are currently struggling with low inflation risks attributed to the fall in energy prices,” it said in a research note today.
It said Malaysia managed to record 6.4 per cent export growth last year but the country’s export performance fell sharply from 12.5 per cent growth in the first half to one per cent growth in the second half as a result of the demand headwinds.
AllianceDBS Research said while the bulk of export growth was contributed by electrical and electronics (E&E) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) goods, exports of other major commodities such as crude petroleum, petroleum products and palm oil goods (collectively making up around 15 per cent of total exports) are currently on a downward trend.
Moving forward, it said LNG exports are expected to slow down in the coming months, adding more downside pressure on export growth, as LNG export prices lag crude oil prices by around five months. — Bernama
