KUALA LUMPUR, July 15 — The landslide victory by Barisan Nasional (BN) in the July 11 state election has fuelled speculation of a broader BN comeback, but political observers caution that the “Johor template” may not be easily replicated in Negeri Sembilan’s upcoming polls.
International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Syaza Shukri described the Johor result as a return to historical norms and a sign of BN’s resurgence.
“I see it as confirmation of BN’s dominance in Johor and that the 2018 election was just a deviation.
“It shows that BN is making its comeback and might become stronger in states it has dominated before, like Pahang and maybe the more relevant for us is Malacca,” she added.
Syaza, however, stressed that the Johor experience cannot simply be transplanted to Negeri Sembilan, where Pakatan Harapan (PH) has the advantage of being the incumbent and where political dynamics — particularly the role of PAS — differ from Johor.
“I don’t think it would be as easy in Negeri Sembilan. For one, PH is the incumbent and can flip BN Johor’s strategy with a focus on local issues and the government’s contribution.
“Plus, in Negeri, PAS is relatively more influential than it is in Johor; therefore, the Malay vote would be split, unlike the consolidation in Johor,” she added.
She also assessed BN’s positioning between state and federal politics.
“I think BN is a coalition in the right place at the right time. It can play both sides. It is in both the Johor state and federal governments. So they can use that to show how they have contributed to the people.
“At the same time, the unity government is PH-led; hence, if anything goes wrong, the blame would be on its leadership. This provides BN space to build itself back,” she said.
Johor’s state election delivered a decisive victory for BN, which secured 48 of the 56 state assembly seats and garnered about 60 per cent of the popular vote — a net gain of six seats compared with the 2022 state election.
The scale of the win was reflected not only in the number of seats secured, but also in significantly increased majorities across many BN-held constituencies.
Among the most notable swings were in seats previously won by opposition parties or narrowly held by BN.
Bukit Kepong, which Bersatu won in 2022 with a 710-vote majority, swung to Umno in 2026 with a 10,761-vote majority.
Bukit Pasir saw its Umno majority rise from 198 votes in 2022 to 7,600 votes in 2026.
Tangkak, previously won by DAP with a 372-vote lead in 2022, was taken by MCA with a 3,182-vote majority in 2026. Serom saw Umno increase its 2022 majority of 699 votes to 9,406 in 2026.
By contrast, many PH-held seats recorded reduced majorities, with some becoming marginal wins.
Mengkibol’s DAP majority fell from 10,107 votes in 2022 to 4,213 in 2026, while Stulang’s margin dropped from 2,866 votes to just 623.
Overall, DAP lost four of the seats it won in 2022, while PKR and Amanah largely maintained their positions.
For Viewfinder Global Affairs managing director Adib Zalkapli, Johor’s outcome was driven as much by personalities and campaign execution as by broader political trends — particularly the popularity of Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
“BN entered the election with a highly popular chief minister, campaigning on a platform of stability and continuity, with former state excos seeking re-election.
“In contrast, PH fielded a relatively weak slate of candidates and lacked a prominent leader capable of matching the incumbent Chief Minister’s popularity. Ultimately, BN ran the stronger campaign and was rewarded by voters,” said Adib.
On why voters returned to BN, he said: “I think the biggest factor was a popular chief minister, who is seen by the voters to be a hands-on leader and a problem solver. And a weaker campaign by PH also contributed to the outcome.”
Looking ahead, Adib said Johor could serve as a springboard for BN if PH fails to adapt, including in Negeri Sembilan.
He added that BN’s campaign discipline would be crucial if it hopes to replicate its success elsewhere.
“If BN can maintain their Johor campaign discipline and if PH does not learn from Johor, there’s a possibility that we will see similar results in Negeri Sembilan.”
Senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Azmi Hassan viewed the Johor result through the broader lens of voters’ desire for stability and simpler coalition arrangements — a factor he said could shape Negeri Sembilan and beyond.
According to Azmi, BN’s clean sweep in Johor showed that voters wanted a state government without a broad coalition arrangement.
“What’s happening at the federal level, where there are 18 different political parties, and they (voters) see the haywire, the fiasco at the national level, they don’t want anything to do with it at a state level.
“I think that’s what we can tell from the Johor election, that the people didn’t want a government that was formed out of a coalition of convenience,” he said.
He said a similar outcome could happen in Negeri Sembilan if voters decide they want a stable government, with support potentially going to either BN or PH.
Azmi added that current trends suggested PH and BN could go solo in the next general election to form a simple majority instead of relying on a broader coalition.
Negeri Sembilan is scheduled to go to the polls on August 1.
PH has been the incumbent in Negeri Sembilan since 2018.
Before the state assembly was dissolved in June 2026, the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state legislative assembly were held by three main coalitions — PH (17), BN (14) and Perikatan Nasional (five).
