KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 7 — Several analysts have suggested that MCA may be reluctant to join in campaigning in the Johor by-elections along with Pakatan Harapan (PH) due to worry that its existing support among the Chinese community may be at risk.

After DAP MP Teresa Kok slammed the Barisan Nasional (BN) component for its absence, political observers polled by Malay Mail said MCA should instead redefine its purpose and find a reason for its existence within the coalition or risk becoming increasingly politically irrelevant among the ethnic Chinese.

“MCA are not keen to help PH and DAP because they know if they did and PH wins, then the statistics will show that the majority of the Chinese are supporting PH meaning MCA won't get the credit but DAP will,” Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan told Malay Mail.

“They also know that any positive change or positive messages that may arise from a PH-DAP win will not be attributed to MCA. So Kok's request is not unreasonable since MCA is a part of BN and BN now works with PH.”

He said this situation is parallel to the challenge faced by Umno members, who had to shift their mindset from opposing PH to supporting PH candidates. Azmi describes this shift as difficult but necessary within the current political landscape.

“In essence, the situation now is similar to the one faced by Umno members as they too have had to shift their mindset from opposing PH to now supporting PH candidates. It is difficult,” he said.

In the 2018 general election, MCA experienced one of its worst electoral performances, winning only one parliamentary seat and two state seats. In the 2022 general election, they won only two seats but joined PH to form the current unity government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

This comes as Kok urged MCA to put aside its differences with PH and leverage its resources, including four state assemblymen and two MPs in Johor, to assist in the upcoming by-elections in Simpang Jeram and Pulai. These by-elections were called following the sudden death of incumbent Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub.

Kok had asserted that it is also MCA's duty to combat fanaticism, extremism, and bigotry brought on by Perikatan Nasional (PN) rather than selectively choosing their battles within the coalition.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun concurs with Azmi, stating that MCA is losing ground in the racial stakes and views the unity between PH and BN as a temporary arrangement.

“They fear that if they help out PH and PH wins in some of their traditionally contested constituencies, then they would never get those constituencies back. And in general, they see this unity government as but a political marriage of convenience, and they may or may not ally themselves with PH in future governments,” he said.

He emphasises that MCA's support for PH in Johor depends on the circumstances, especially considering the past electoral conflicts between PN and BN during the tail end of the previous coalition government.

The 2022 general election saw PH winning 81 seats, while PN secured 73 seats. BN, once a dominant political force in Malaysia, finished a distant third with only 30 seats, a significant decline from the 79 seats they won in 2018. This shift in political dynamics underscores MCA's concerns about maintaining its position among Chinese voters.

Associate Professor Azmil Tayeb from Universiti Sains Malaysia acknowledges that PH is now the preferred choice among non-Malays, which naturally leads MCA to fear losing its stronghold on Chinese voters. However, he suggests that it is not necessarily MCA's obligation to assist DAP, as MCA still views DAP as a competitor for Chinese votes.

“MCA still sees PH, specifically DAP, as a competitor for getting Chinese votes. Perhaps MCA thinks that by helping PH to campaign it will only strengthen DAP’s position. It’s valid for Kok to ask MCA to help as part of the same coalition but it’s up to MCA whether to cooperate or not,” he said when contacted.

As Malaysia prepares for the Pulai parliamentary by-election and the Simpang Jeram by-election, political observers will closely watch MCA's actions, as they navigate the delicate balance between preserving their support base and remaining relevant in an evolving political landscape.

The Pulai parliamentary by-election will see Suhaizan Kayat from PH competing against Zulkifli Jaafar from PN and independent candidate Samsudin Fauzi.

Simpang Jeram will witness PH candidate Nazri Abdul Rahman facing off against Dr Mazri Yahya from PN and independent candidate S. Jeganathan.

The Election Commission has scheduled the by-elections to be held simultaneously, with early voting on September 5 and polling day on September 9.