KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 16 — The Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) pact is unlikely to replicate its success in the Negeri Sembilan election simply by exporting its arrangement there to other parts of Malaysia, according to political analysts.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the politics in Negeri Sembilan differed from states like Penang and Selangor where Perikatan Nasional (PN) was able to take away seats from the pact.
“The 14 seats won by BN in Negeri Sembilan are due to several factors. Firstly, Malay voters in Negeri Sembilan have a strong attachment to traditions, and I believe that the influence of traditional cultural hierarchy influences their choice.
“Secondly, there is an influential figure in Negeri Sembilan, such as Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, who is able to attract support as he once governed the state as menteri besar, and thirdly there isn’t a dominant issue involving the Malays in Negeri Sembilan,” Tawfik told Malay Mail when contacted.
In the six state elections last week, PN won 22 out of 56 state seats in Selangor and 11 out of 40 state seats in Penang. These are two states considered PH strongholds.
However, it was restricted to just five seats out of the 31 in Negeri Sembilan, despite voter demographics that worked in its favour elsewhere.
“PN still finds it difficult to expand its influence at the grassroots level of the Malays in Negeri Sembilan as the Malays in the state hold strongly to their customs and are closer to the party that has performed well and served them rather than a party or coalition that never governed the state,” Tawfik said.
While saying that there was discontent among voters and supporters towards BN chairman and Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Tawfik said this was subdued in Negeri Sembilan.
“The issues surrounding Zahid aren’t dominant in Negeri Sembilan because Tok Mat’s (Mohamad) image outshines that.
“PN only managed to play up the Zahid issue and national issues in the five areas they won, which reduced Malay support (for PH-BN),” he said, adding that voters in Penang and Selangor chose PN due to anger towards Zahid.
In Negeri Sembilan, PN won Gemas, Serting, Labu, Bagan Pinang, and Paroi.
However, this could have been more as PH-BN candidates only won with majorities of between 500 and 1,000 votes in Juasseh, Kota, Ampangan, Seri Menanti, Sungai Lui, Klawang, Serting, Palong, Jeram Padang, Lenggeng, and Senaling.
University of Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMcedel) sociopolitical analyst Associate Professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said one of the differences between Negeri Sembilan and the other states was that DAP supporters there were more receptive to BN.
“So you can’t take Negeri Sembilan as an example, and use that as a base for other states.
“Zahid’s presence in Negeri Sembilan is not as noticeable compared to other states, and Negeri Sembilan voters are not bothered with politics outside of the state.
“They are appreciative of what Tok Mat has done for them and that was their focus during the state election,” Awang Azman said.
According to Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Azmi Hassan, Umno in Negeri Sembilan was seen differently by state voters than the party at the federal level.
“Umno looks very strong in Negeri Sembilan, not very strong in terms of political standing, but very strong in facing PH in the state.
“And I think one of the reasons is, Tok Mat is there, and that is why he contested. Based on 2018 results, I could say it was a fair game between PH and BN, they were both strong.
“And again in the 2022 general election, similar results for parliamentary seats for both PH and BN, and the perception that Tok Mat was contesting gave the Malay voters an impression that the menteri besar candidate could be from Umno, and that’s the perception to show the standing of Umno and that levels the playing ground with PH then,” Azmi said.
In the state election in Penang, the PH-BN unity pact lost all state seats that were under Permatang Pauh — Seberang Jaya, Penanti and Permatang Pasir. These seats were slimmer majorities compared to the Permatang Pauh defeat in the 15th general election when PKR’s former vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar lost the seat to PN.
The PN coalition had also managed to wrestle some mixed-race seats such as Kulim and Derga, which are both in Kedah.
It was a clean sweep for PN in Terengganu and an almost similar victory occurred in Kelantan with 43 out of 45 seats won by the coalition, while in Kedah they bagged 30 out of 36 state seats.
