KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 18 — DAP’s strategy of seizing vital seats in Johor from Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) in the next general election will be challenging, based on a survey of political parties’ popularity on social media.

In Politweet’s “Trends in Political Party Interest in 2015” study, it found that attention for Umno was greatest in its birth state of Johor, which rival DAP has identified as a key battleground in the race for Putrajaya.

“By comparing the distribution of users for each party against the national average, we can estimate where each party’s strength lies,” the social media research firm said in the study.

“All three Opposition parties are weaker in Johor compared to Umno, particularly DAP”

According to the study, Johor was among four states where social media attention for Umno was strongest and DAP, the weakest. The others are Malacca, Negri Sembilan and Perak.

The reverse situation was true in just one state, Penang, where DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng is chief minister.

But the secular party is also clearly ahead of both allies and rivals in major urban centres such as the civil service-dominated Putrajaya and the Klang Valley, where the DAP commands 57 per cent of interest on Twitter, far ahead of the national average of 47 per cent and 49 per cent that partner PKR registered.

“Among the four parties shown, Umno has the most balanced distribution in interest. It is also the most-mentioned party by a large margin,” Politweet said.

On Facebook, Umno and DAP both remained the two parties with the greatest amount of interest among voters, although the Malay nationalist party  now commanded an audience significantly larger: 6.3 million versus DAP’s 3.8 million.

The figures also showed the accelerating interest in Umno, which added another 500,000 to its audience from 2014, while DAP lost 100,000.

According to Politweet, the level of interest in Umno and DAP were closely linked until May 2015 when interest in DAP began to decrease.

The study also showed an increasingly divisive nature to Malaysian politics, with fewer than half of the Facebook population now interested in news on both BN and opposition parties, falling to 47 per cent.

“This is the first time it has dropped below 50 per cent since November 2013 when it was at 43.48 per cent,” Politweet said.

A Parti Amanah Leader from Johor recently suggested that DAP not field Malay candidates in the state, saying that the secular party did not fully grasp the realities of the community’s politics.