WASHINGTON, Aug 26 — President Joe Biden was to address a Democratic rally yesterday ahead of midterm elections, with the party suddenly optimistic that recent policy wins will help dodge a thumping by Republicans.

Just weeks ago, Democrats were in the doldrums.

With Biden’s approval ratings below 40 per cent and the party seemingly unable to close the deal on a series of election promises, there were widespread expectations that the Republicans would easily take control of at least one chamber of Congress in the November 8 midterms.

A dramatic August, however, has sown the seeds of what some Democrats hope will be a political miracle, with their party holding the Senate and at minimum mitigating the size of the Republican win in the House of Representatives.

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At the rally in Maryland, just outside Washington, Biden will lay out the party’s message as it seeks to build on momentum kickstarted by a spate of legislative wins in Congress, as well as anger for many Americans over the conservative-dominated Supreme Court’s recent ruling to end nationwide abortion access rights.

“The president will lay out the choice before Americans. He’ll highlight how he and congressional Democrats have delivered results for working families,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters.

She cited the racking up of laws on funding high tech investment, the green economy, healthcare and also a limited, but still politically impressive approval for new gun safety restrictions.

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The Republican agenda, she said, is beholden to Donald Trump, currently embroiled in a dispute with the Justice Department and the FBI over his allegedly illegal removal of top secret documents from the White House to his Florida golf club residence.

Their “extreme” agenda means “taking away our rights and defending the super rich,” she said.

The speech will come the day after Biden’s latest move — his announcement Wednesday that millions of voters will be eligible to have between US$10,000 and US$20,000 cancelled from their often crippling student debt.

Shifting polls

The mood shift comes in a period where experts say the unpredictable post-pandemic economy and the deep passions sparked in the Supreme Court abortion ruling could upend traditional patterns for midterm elections.

One reason the Republicans were expecting wins is that opposition parties nearly always punish the president’s party in midterms.

Another is that Biden, after a tough year marred by repeated new Covid variants and the highest inflation in 40 years, is so unpopular. His average approval rating has been stuck below 40 per cent since late June, making him as unpopular as Trump before him.

Add in redistricting of House seats that was widely believed to favour the Republicans — effectively almost guaranteeing them several extra seats — and Republican party leaders were predicting a “red wave” to sweep “blue” Democrats away.

Now there’s giddy talk on the left of a blue riptide washing back in the other direction.

The average of baseline polls asking which party should control Congress has shifted from months where Republicans led to a narrow 44-43.6 per cent advantage for Democrats.

In the individual races, there are also glimmers of hope for Biden’s party. A Democrat won Wednesday in a special election in a House swing district in New York — exactly the kind of district Republicans would expect to flip in a red wave.

The Senate, which Democrats currently only control with one vote, was also thought to be trending Republican, but even Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell says that’s now a 50-50 proposition.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said.

The veteran insider cited the “quality” of his party’s Senate candidates. It was a clear dig at some of the Republican contenders chosen in large part because of their populist, pro-Trump credentials, rather than credibility with the electorate at large.

Meanwhile, Biden’s own polling, while still terrible, is also creeping up.

A Gallup poll yesterday showed 44 per cent approval, his best result in a year. By comparison, this is actually better polling for an August before midterm elections than Trump in 2018 or Barack Obama in 2014, Gallup said. — AFP