KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 30 — The 15th general election (GE15) saw Perikatan Nasional (PN) and its component parties gaining significant grounds in the north-western and east coasts of the peninsula, while bringing about a unison of the two largest political coalitions of differing ideologies to form the federal government.
PN, formed in the wake of the 2020 Malaysian political crisis to replace the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government by lynchpins PAS and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, saw the fledgling coalition succeeding in winning 74 federal seats — an increase of 41 seats from the previous general election held in 2018.
In retrospect, Islamist PAS was the biggest gainer as it made a clean sweep in both Kelantan and Terengganu; while further increasing their seats in Perlis, Perak and Pahang and Kedah to a total of 43 seats (up 25 seats from the previous vote).
So much so that the so-called “green wave” of support for religious conservatism had now allowed PAS to become the single best-represented Opposition party in Parliament, taking over the mantle that Umno had once worn.
In power for almost six decades, the once-dominant Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) saw its support dwindle significantly after having only managed to secure 30 seats in the GE15 or down 49 seats it held during the previous polls.
As for PH, the coalition led by reformist Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim saw as many as 18 seats lost to PN even though it won the most seats out of the three biggest contesting coalitions at 81 seats.
This is after Anwar’s PH coalition won the largest share of popular vote at 38 per cent (5,931,519 votes), followed by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s PN coalition at 30.12 per cent (4,701,906 votes) and lastly Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s BN at 23.40 per cent (3,653,069 votes).
The three-way split in federal seats allocation would go on to mean that no coalition won the required 112 seats needed for a majority in the Dewan Rakyat to form the next government, resulting in a hung parliament for the first time in history.
Anwar would later obtain the necessary parliamentary support from rival coalitions such as BN and Gabungan Parti Sarawak to form his new unity government.
2023 state elections
Roughly nine months after GE15, the six state elections held in August saw the "green wave" spearheaded by PN making further inroads into Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang while almost shutting out its rivals entirely in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu with an average voter turnout of 70.4 per cent.
This was also the first time the unity coalition of PH-BN contested against PN, with the respective coalitions succeeding in maintaining a ruling status quo on the states they held but with considerable changes.
Emboldened by their significant electoral gains made several months prior, PN waged a relentless campaign against their opponent by pushing anti-Islam or anti-Malay narratives, further deepening ethnic divides and racial tensions.
Fortified by its unwavering commitment to Islamic tenets and Malay privileges, the state election saw PN emerging as a compelling alternative to the once steadfast champion of Malay rights, Umno.
Out of the 245 seats contested, PN won 146 of them (with PAS securing 80 per cent of contested seats at 117), effectively reducing PH-BN’s vote majority in three states namely Selangor (where it managed to break the two-thirds majority), Negeri Sembilan and a clean sweep of Terengganu.
In Terengganu, PN achieved a supermajority in the state assembly after it obliterated BN by obtaining a popular vote of 68.44 per cent, leaving the PH-BN coalition with no seats won, a testament to their dominance during GE15 where it swept all eight federal seats it contested.
Continuing PAS’ dominance in Kelantan since 1990, the only consolation PH-BN could muster was that it managed to secure two state seats — Kota Lama and Galas — in Kelantan in what was once considered the impregnable bastion of PAS.
Padang Serai and Pulai by-elections
Both by-elections were triggered following the death of their incumbents, with Padang Serai taking place shortly after the conclusion of GE15.
For Padang Serai, PN wrested the seat away from PH with a significant majority of 16,260 votes following a voter turnout of 68.95 per cent.
The late M Karupaiya from PKR had won the seat — held by PKR since 2008 — in the 2018 polls with a majority of 8,813 votes.
The Padang Serai win would go on to seal PN’s dominance in Kedah by winning 14 out of the 15 parliamentary seats contested, with the sole loss being in Sungai Petani to PH.
As for Pulai, the late Datuk Salahuddin Ayub of PH held the seat for two terms after winning it back in 2018.
Following his death, PH retained the seat in the Pulai by-election after Suhaizan Kayat was elected as its representative but with a reduced majority in the aftermath of GE15 at 18,641 votes as compared to 33,174 votes when Salahuddin contested in a three-way fight with PN.
Kuala Terengganu and Kemaman by-elections
Subsequent by-elections in Kuala Terengganu and Kemaman also saw minimal effect to dissuade support for PN even after the Election Court found elements of corruption during PAS’ election campaigning for the two federal constituencies, leading to the nullification of their initial GE15 results.
Before the result nullification, Datuk Ahmad Amzad Hashim and Che Alias Hamid both served as elected representatives for Kuala Terengganu and Kemaman respectively.
Instead, the by-elections further consolidated PAS’ hold on both seats with bigger vote shares and majorities despite having lower voter turnouts as compared to GE15 in November 2022.
In Kemaman, PAS garnered 64,998 votes or a 37,220 majority (an increase of 10,041 votes) from GE15; whereas in Kuala Terengganu, PAS garnered 68,369 votes or a 47,266 majority (an increase of 6,359 votes) from GE15.
Following the by-elections, Ahmad Amzad was reelected as Kuala Terengganu rep; while Terengganu Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar was elected as Kemaman rep respectively.
