KUALA LUMPUR, June 13 ― Several political observers have suggested that Perikatan Nasional (PN) members, either Barisan Nasional (BN) or Muafakat Nasional (MN), may benefit the most from calling a snap general election soon.
Those polled by Malay Mail also wagered that the new pact may even be more formidable than their past reiterations if it could solve the seat allocation negotiations with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia which previously went against Umno in most seats.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Azmi Hasan said while there is a possibility that a snap election may be called “soon”, Prime Minister and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin will likely hold off from doing so until he is sure of Bersatu’s position within PN.
“But what is still up in the air is the PN composition whether Muafakat Nasional will go with or without Bersatu. This is what is holding Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to dissolve the Parliament or otherwise.
“There has been no clear signal either from Umno or PAS regarding this issue. Since it's purported that seat allocation in MN is nearly finalised, the issue is that the discussion is without Bersatu.
“If PN is formalised then the seat allocation needs to be discussed again,” he said.
BN is formed of Umno, MCA, MIC and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah, while MN is an unofficial alliance between Umno and PAS.
Last month, BN, PAS, Bersatu, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS ― made of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Progressive Democratic Party), Parti Bersatu Sabah and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) decided to officially cooperate as PN.
However, Azmi pointed out that this would be difficult as all three parties ― Umno, Bersatu, PAS ― are aiming to contest within the same Malay voter segment.
He also stated that it is difficult to gauge the real support for Bersatu as it won seats in the 14th general election with the support of its Pakatan Harapan (PH) allies PKR, DAP and Parti Amanah Negara.
“So in simplistic form MN seat allocation is quite straightforward since the benchmark is there, ie. GE14 results.
“But for Bersatu, it is quite difficult to factor the party’s influence in GE14 since Bersatu won its seats with the help of its PH allies. So it is interesting to see how PN will evolve and GE15 will solidly depend on this PN structure in the coming future.”
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Mara Sabah’s Tony Paridi Bagang said he is optimistic for both coalition's chances come GE15, however also pointed that PN may have an advantage if Umno and PAS would compromise with Bersatu.
“I would say it 50/50. If Umno/PAS and Bersatu are able to compromise over their seats and reach consensus over it, then, PN may have an advantage. PN would be able to obtain support from the Malays. But again as i said, they must agree first on their terms.
Tony stated that PH may be able to get great support provided that they strengthen their coalition and address all inner issues related to them, especially in PKR.
For University Malaysia Sabah social science lecturer and political observer Lee Kuok Tiung, PAS and Umno would be at an advantage if fresh elections is called as both parties have been consistent in their support for one another, compared to the PH coalition due to internal strife within PKR and Bersatu.
The professor also pointed out that that PH is sidestepping the issue of who would be the prime minister candidate at the moment as the issue is considered as a thorn in its backside, and was also the reason why the PH administration had collapsed in February of this year.
At this moment, Lee said PH needs to consolidate its support and ensure that both PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and disputed Bersatu chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad work together.
“There must be a reason why no PH leaders call for snap elections with all this political turmoil in Malaysia. I guess their thinktank did their calculation too already.
“Their only way to strengthen themselves is to make sure Anwar-Mahathir works together. Between DAP, PKR and Amanah, DAP will get the most seats,” he said.
However, due to PN’s informal status as a coalition, Lee also suggested there is possibility the ruling coalition would use the BN logo to contest in GE15.
“Perikatan Nasional was just a mutual understanding between a group of MPs to form the government. PN has no locus standi to stand or use their logo for GE15,” he said, adding that PN does not even have a logo until now. The pact is also not an official registered political entity.
“This will be something interesting to wait and see because [they] all might end up using the BN logo like PH use PKR logo in GE14.’’ he said, referring to the scale logo.
“We are looking at Bersatu, Umno, PAS and a Sabah-Sarawak alliance. Eventually they’ll come to a conclusion or understanding to work under a coalition in GE15,” he added.
Sabah and Sarawak as kingmakers again?
Following Dr Mahathir’s resignation on February 24, a week of political turmoil followed, with political coalitions competing for support to reach a simple majority in forming the next federal government.
The week culminated with the formation of the PN administration, which many attribute to 18 lawmakers from GPSas the kingmaker or deciding factor.
Azmi stated that for PN, GPS remains a valuable ally, with the Sarawak based political coalition could play kingmaker again come GE15.
“Especially GPS, they can be regarded as the king maker since the alliance is quite influential in Sarawak with the current MPs alone it can either break or make PN stronger.
However, he said this differs from Parti Warisan Sabah, with its party chief and state chief minister, Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, who is seen as a strong supporter of Dr Mahathir.
“But for Warisan it cannot be regarded as kingmaker because, for one the party is not a PN supporter so there is no added value for PN. And also Warisan is not as a solid alliance compared to GPS.
“And adding the factor that Sabah Umno is quite strong so in my opinion Warisan come GE15 will not be a great influencer,” Azmi said.
However, Tony pointed out that Sabah could be a wildcard for both political coalitions as locals there may not take to kindly with the state administration being in the federal Opposition.
“Yes, state politics has always been affected by national politics. But whether they are okay with being in opposition remains to be seen.
“It’s premature to say whether Sabahans are okay or not okay with being opposition. But, if we were to recall the history of Sabah’s politics, being opposition was not a good choice,” he said.
“Sarawak is gearing up for their state election. There are many good things that give benefits to Sarawakians. Again, it is premature to say that Sarawakians are happy with PN but this could only be answered once they translate their support in the ballot box,” he added.
Sarawak is expected to hold their state elections before September, 7, 2021.
Yesterday, Sarawak chief minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Openg downplayed the rumour of GPS joining hands with PH, comparing the state coalition to a “beautiful lady” that has caused suitors trying to woo its support.
Singapore’s Straits Times also wrote quoting sources that Muhyiddin is looking to call snap polls as early as this year to end doubts over his mandate amid accusations that his PN government is a “backdoor” one that lacks a parliamentary majority.
