US–Japan alliance to stabilise East Asian order even with a new Japanese PM — Phar Kim Beng, Jitkai Chin and Luthfy Hamzah

OCTOBER 24 — As Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi is expected to bring a sharper, more hawkish security outlook – especially toward China and North Korea. Yet her incoming administration is poised to consolidate Japan’s strategic partnership with the United States as the cornerstone of East Asia’s stability, a continuity seen in every Japanese government since the end of the Cold War.

With a de facto “Cold War II” under way, Tokyo cannot afford complacency. Even as opposition groups like Komeito insist that regional tensions are exaggerated, their split from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – ending a 26-year coalition – signals a decisive shift in Japan’s political landscape.

An alliance as anchor of deterrence

The US–Japan alliance has long served as the defensive anchor of the Indo-Pacific, complementing Washington’s other bilateral ties with Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Today, the alliance is evolving into a fully integrated deterrent architecture designed to counter the growing clout of China and North Korea, particularly Pyongyang’s accelerating missile programs.

At its core lies an interoperable air- and missile-defense network combining Japan’s Aegis destroyers and upgraded PAC-3 systems with US early-warning satellites and over-the-horizon sensors, enabling shared real-time targeting and joint interception. Japan’s forthcoming long-range strike capabilities – synchronized through common targeting protocols and cross-domain operations – strengthen deterrence by denial, ensuring any first strike becomes strategically futile.

Beijing, focused on economic revitalisation, does not seek open conflict, yet it remains resolute about preventing Taiwan from drifting toward full independence. For this reason, China insists on keeping the option of forceful reunification, a factor shaping Japan’s defensive calculus.

Expanding cooperation beyond kinetic power

The depth of US–Japan cooperation now extends into surveillance, reconnaissance, and cyber domains. Persistent UAV patrols, maritime-domain awareness networks, and resilient satellite constellations ensure round-the-clock vigilance across the First Island Chain.

Given the vast expanse of the western Pacific, it is difficult for Japan and the US alone to maintain an enduring presence. Hence, the strategic donation of naval platforms by Japan to Asean countries reflects a forward-looking approach to regional security. Japan has previously provided coastal surveillance vessels and maritime equipment to Malaysia, strengthening its ability to monitor strategic waterways.

Recent reports that Japan may transfer up to six Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippine Navy could significantly enhance Manila’s anti-submarine and anti-ship capabilities in the South China Sea. Importantly, these vessels are designed with dual-use capabilities – able to serve as platforms for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) during typhoons, tsunamis, and other natural disasters that regularly strike Southeast Asia. By empowering regional partners with assets that serve both deterrent and humanitarian purposes, Japan is fostering a cooperative security architecture rooted in shared resilience rather than militarisation.

In cyber and electronic warfare, both nations are reinforcing command-and-control resilience through quantum-secure encryption, hardened communications, and constant red-team testing – maintaining operational continuity even under digital siege. Logistically, forward-based assets across Japan’s southwestern islands, combined with expeditionary basing concepts, guarantee agility and survivability during crises.

Trilateral and mini-lateral webs of security

Trilateral coordination among the United States, Japan, and South Korea is becoming institutionalised through missile-warning drills, maritime sanctions enforcement, and crisis-communication cells – all narrowing the gap against North Korean provocations.

Mini-lateral arrangements with the Philippines and Australia enhance maritime coordination across the Luzon Strait and Western Pacific, while coast-guard cooperation – the “white-hull line of deterrence” – manages gray-zone encounters short of war. Through these mechanisms, Japan is anchoring a networked deterrent framework that complements US power projection while respecting regional sensitivities.

Asean’s role: Diplomacy amid great-power integration

For Asean, this evolving alliance demands nimble diplomacy. Engaging Tokyo through platforms like the East Asia Summit (EAS), ADMM-Plus, and the Asia Zero Emissions Community (AZEC) is essential to ensure that a strengthened alliance contributes to collective stability rather than rivalry.

When deterrence is integrated across air, sea, land, cyber, and space, the result need not be an arms race but a safety net. A cohesive US–Japan alliance, anchored in shared technology, energy security, and credible defense, can serve as East Asia’s stabiliser – allowing Asean and partners to prioritise prosperity built upon peace.

Linking security with sustainability

The US–Japan partnership must ultimately align with AZEC, embedding clean-energy innovation within defense sustainability. Hydrogen, renewables, and green infrastructure will decarbonise regional growth while strengthening operational resilience.

Joint initiatives in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) – lessons learned from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami – highlight how military capacity can be repurposed for humanitarian stability.

Japan’s vessels donated to Asean, if equipped for dual security–humanitarian roles, can conduct rapid disaster response, deliver aid, and support coastal communities after cyclones, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions – reinforcing Asean’s own HADR coordination mechanisms.

However, the Trump administration’s pro-fossil-fuel stance suggests limited enthusiasm for fusing defense with decarbonisation in the short term. Japan, therefore, must lead AZEC in concert with Asean and South Pacific states to keep the sustainability agenda alive.

Japan’s leadership in green hydrogen technology – including solid-state hydrogen storage and PEM fuel cells suited to tropical climates – complements US advancements in small modular reactors (SMR), microgrid architecture, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) essential for powering future data and AI centers across Asean.

Conclusion: Stability through prudence

Any East Asian order built upon restraint and rule-based interaction – ideally free from the shadow of transnational digital scams and criminal networks in Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar – will be a boon for both new and old Japan.

As prime minister, Sanae Takaichi is expected to deepen Japan’s strategic partnership with India, prioritising supply chain resilience, critical minerals, and advanced technologies such as semiconductors and telecommunications. Having served in multiple past cabinets, she possesses the experience to navigate these cross-currents.

If managed with foresight, the evolving US–Japan alliance under her leadership can stabilise East Asia while giving Asean the space to craft a peaceful, prosperous, and decarbonised future – one in which the ships Japan donates not only patrol against threats, but also save lives when disaster strikes.

* Phar Kim Beng is Professor of Asean Studies and Director, Institute of International and Asean Studies (IINTAS). Jitkai Chin is Associate Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Petronas. Luthfy Hamzah is Research Fellow, IINTAS.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.