JULY 5 — Malaysia has been experiencing spikes in new cases, deaths and hospitalisations, which are soaring toward the record heights that were seen at the start of 2021 and this increasing trend is raising grave concerns, stress, anxiety and worry to Malaysians.
Malaysia’s projection and actual Covid-19 cases
In January 2021, MoH DG Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah posted on Twitter two of the ministry’s Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model projections up to May 31; applying R0 infection rates (R0, pronounced R naught) at 1.1 and 1.2.
For the former, R0 of 1.1, the Ministry projected that Malaysia’s daily cases should only reach 3,000 daily cases by the second week of February, 5,000 by the second week of April and 8,000 by the fourth week of May and for the latter; R0 of 1.2, it was projected that Malaysia would only reach 3,000 daily cases by the fourth week of January, 5,000 cases by the third week of February and 8,000 by the third week of March
However, Malaysia breached the 3,000 mark, recording 3,027 Covid-19 cases
on January 7, 2021, 7478 new cases on 26 May 2021 and a record high of 9,020 cases on 29th May 2021 the highest daily toll since the start of the pandemic. These has all exceeded the projections of the MoH.
We are at war with a Virus and its essential for countries to apply Wartime logic to fight the pandemic
At the opening of the World Health Organisation’s annual assembly of member states on 24th May 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had urged recognition of the fact that “we are at war with a virus” and had called for countries to apply ‘wartime logic’ to fight the (Corona) virus that has killed 3.4 million people.
In response to the rising Covid cases and deaths, on 28th June, the prime minister announced that Government will extend the MCO for a further 2 weeks till mid-July and when Covid cases reduces to 4000 and below, Malaysia will enter into phase 2 of the National Recovery Period.
Alas, the Rakyat saw this as a grim impossibility with the current Covid cases hovering between 5000 plus and 6000 plus and at times reaching near 7000 cases, only with the occasional 4000 plus Covid cases registered recently
Recommendations for Malaysia
As Malaysia continues to experience the surge in Covid-19 cases and deaths, with the projected 4000 cases near impossible to achieve at this rate and by this current strategy, and in view of the MoH daily update that industry clusters are the major sources and causes of infections it is imperative for the Government, to reflect upon whether the current strategy and response by Malaysia is the RIGHT Prescription for Success
The prime minister had shared with Malaysians that the Ministry of Health had recommended for a total lockdown similar to MCO 1.0 for MCO 3.0. However, news reports highlighted that there were arguments between Ministers and finally a nationwide semi lockdown was imposed, with many non-essential businesses approved to operate. This had horrified the public.
Respected prime minister and Cabinet ministers, it is vital that Malaysia applies wartime logic to win this war. A military strategist will apply military power including military forces, territory and resources to fight a major land, sea and air war and strategize on how to apply force, including which aspect of the military -land, naval and air forces to mobilise.
As a case in point, in the event of an attack or crisis at sea, the Chief of the Navy and his team would develop strategies for the planning and conduct of war with the aim of achieving victory at sea, under the leadership of the Commander in Chief
It is thus critical for the Government to recognise that Covid-19 pandemic is a public health crisis and accord priority to the Ministry of Health and its team of experts to develop relevant strategies to fight this pandemic and support the MoH’s recommendations for a nationwide full lockdown as per MCO 1.0 for the nation to have a better chance of achieving the target of 4000 Covid cases and less, which will enable the nation and rakyat to proceed to phase 2, 3 and 4 of the NRP successfully.
The danger of maintaining this relatively less restrictive MCO as compared to MCO 1.0 may see the nation in a permanent lockdown which will ultimately further worsen the nation’s health, social, economic, business and financial crisis.
Additionally, as in war, it is critical that the military resources, supplies, equipment and weapons must be adequate and in good conditions.
Presently it has been reported that our frontliners are working long hours and many are facing burnt out, hospital beds are nearly fully occupied and oxygen may be insufficient which paints a grim situation of the nation’s health system which may be overwhelmed any time soon
Furthermore, the stress, despair and desperation felt by the Rakyat arising from prolong lockdown and isolation from family and friends is causing stress, mental illnesses and resulting in social crisis including domestic violence and the tragic cases of suicides reported daily.
Thus it is urgent that a new strategy must be in place including instituting a full and not a partial nation lockdown as it seems to be so currently, and to close non-essential businesses just for a targeted period of time to ensure the Covid cases and deaths can be reduced significantly for the Government to able to end the lockdown soon to facilitate a better quality of life for citizens including frontliners and improved conditions for businesses.
With this new prescription for success, Malaysia will have a better chance to emerge victorious over this catastrophic pandemic.
* Sheriffah Noor Khamseah Al-Idid is a former special officer to the first science advisor to Malaysia’s prime minister.
** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
