MAY 20 ― Recently the prime minister made a speech where he spoke about the threat of liberalism, secularism and LGBT, or collectively known to him as “humanrightism” to Islam. He clarified later that he was not against human rights.
The earlier speech seemed to see the PM depart from his international rhetoric of being a “moderate” Islamic leader. Considering the timing and context, it seemed pretty obvious who he was trying to appeal to. Overall, this incident teaches us a bit about the nature of political change, about what’s necessary.
A key phrase used by activists to motivate everyday people is “be the change you want to see in the world” by Mahatma Gandhi. But the very same people uttering that phrase would always stop short of explaining what that entails.
The prime minister seems to be in a bit of a dilemma. His core voter base, the one he was trying to appeal to, is a sunset demographic, meaning, its numbers are gradually decreasing as factors like urbanisation and mortality take their toll.
A decreasing core voter base is obviously a cause for concern. If Barisan Nasional wants to stay in Putrajaya for a few more terms, it has to shift politically.
Still, this is easier said than done. The earlier mentioned demographic transition has brought to life movements like Isma and a reinvigorated Perkasa.
It comes as no surprise that groups like Isma are being born; right-wing Malays need to create more committed followers and have to be better organised. Added with the fact that right-wing Malays personally feel that their way of life is under threat, organisations like Isma and Perkasa are bound to only get stronger. Recently, we learnt that Perkasa has nearly half a million members.
So the prime minister needs to move his party and gain support from a more diverse group. Doing this is no easy task as PAS is ready and eager to take away any voter Barisan Nasional alienates while PKR and DAP have a strong hold on their own respective demographics.
This leaves Barisan Nasional with one option; to maintain the support of conservative Malays while trying to gain the support of other demographics. And if you’ve been following the recent news, you’ll know that this is near impossible.
But within this seemingly hopeless situation, we can actually determine the overall strategy of Barisan Nasional. It would be rather farfetched to think an established ruling party does not have a grand plan to get themselves out of this situation. And all fingers seem to be pointed at economics.
In fact, when one adds the economic dimension into the equation, it explains everything the PM has done. Traditionally, conservative Malays greatly value social mobility and from our experience of the Mahathir administration, we know that being able to provide stable and fast economic growth provides one with a ticket to essentially impose any social vision onto Malaysia. Economic progress also would allay the anger of urban Malays, as well as gain support from conservative Chinese and Indian voters.
From there, he would be able to buy time to start courting the younger multiracial demographic, whose priorities tend to lie more in freedoms. Ironically enough, to preserve the rule of Barisan Nasional, he would eventually have to start legislating support for the “humanrightism” he “opposed” in his speech.
In all, it explains why Datuk Seri Najib Razak places great emphasis on his Economic Transformation Programme. It explains why he’s willing to pander to right wing groups despite the fact that in an interview with Time magazine when he first came into power, he stressed changing the notion of Malay “rights.” Even more controversially, it explains why Pakatan Rakyat opposes ferociously certain economic issues, case in point GST.
Economics is Barisan Nasional’s only way out. But again, this is no easy task. Achieving the necessary entails a great deal of reforms within Malaysia’s economic institutions. It means tackling Malaysia’s human capital flight. It means strengthening governance. Not only that, it also means reforming rent-seeking behaviour that has been deeply embedded in Umno.
From this outlook, it looks as if Najib is out to do the impossible. Which makes it an interesting time to be Malaysian.
*This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
