• Around 50% of companies see supply chain paralysis and a global internet outage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios in the next five years.
  • Geopolitical noise around the globe masks risks from high-impact climate, health, and future technology risks.
  • Different risk perceptions between multinational enterprises and small and medium-sized businesses.
 SINGAPORE - Media OutReach Newswire - 4 March 2026 - Despite seeming predictable in hindsight, Black Swans are unexpected or unforeseen events that are highly disruptive and economically damaging. Examples include the 9/11 attacks of 2001 in the US, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Allianz Research estimates cumulative global GDP losses from the pandemic between 2020 and 2023 to be in the region of US$12trn.In addition to the huge financial and business costs, such events typically have long-lasting implications, resulting in geopolitical and societal shifts that continue many years after the initial event. According to new Allianz Risk Barometer analysis, more than half of the 3,000+ respondents (51%) identify a global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict as the most plausible Black Swan scenario globally which could impact their company in the next five years. Fear of a global internet outage ranks second (47%) which reflects the increasing awareness of cyber and artificial intelligence (AI) risks among business leaders.

Respondents in Asia Pacific also identified a global supply chain paralysis and global internet outrage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios; the former is ranked first in China and Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea, while the latter is ranked first in Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund comments: "Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high-impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences. Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses. In today's fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm."

Geopolitics is a key driver for Black Swans
Given the current geopolitical environment, it is no surprise that supply chain paralysis resulting from a geopolitical conflict is regarded as the most plausible Black Swan scenario. The threats of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism, as well as disruption to supply chains and shipping caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia / Ukraine are at the top of every board agenda. Allianz Research estimates that cumulative GDP losses over a two-year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total US$1.5trn. In fact, political-related risks stand out as a leading potential trigger for Black Swan events, according to respondents. Mass social unrest and political instability is regarded as the fourth most plausible scenario globally (29%) and is a top three risk in the Americas (31%) and Africa and the Middle East (41%) regions, as well as in France (42%), for example. A sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis, leading to a global liquidity crisis and severe market volatility ranks third (30%).

Interconnectivity and interdependency of both physical and digital supply chains are potentially increasing vulnerability at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, rapid advances in technology, and climate change. Businesses and global supply chains are also more vulnerable to Black Swan events due to growing concentrations of economic activity reliant on a limited number of critical suppliers and products in areas like AI and digital services, semiconductors, rare earth processors and transition technologies.

Company size influences risk perception
Global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict halting the movement of goods and raw materials ranks top for both large (>US$500mn annual revenue, 55% of responses) and mid-sized companies (US$100mn+ to US$500mn, 52%). In contrast, smaller companies (
"Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate-related catastrophe. Building organizational agility, fostering a risk-aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events. Insurers can play a critical role in helping businesses strengthen their resilience in areas such as cyber risk and support more informed decisions when assessing and selecting critical suppliers," says Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services, Allianz Commercial.

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About Allianz Commercial

Allianz Commercial is the center of expertise and global line of Allianz Group for insuring mid-sized businesses, large enterprises and specialist risks. Among our customers are the world's largest consumer brands, financial institutions and industry players, the global aviation and shipping industry as well as family-owned and medium enterprises which are the backbone of the economy. We also cover unique risks such as offshore wind parks, infrastructure projects or film productions. Powered by the employees, , and network of the world's #1 insurance brand, we work together to help our customers prepare for what's ahead: They trust us in providing a wide range of traditional and risk transfer solutions, outstanding and services as well as seamless handling. Allianz Commercial brings together the large corporate insurance business of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and the commercial insurance business of national Allianz Property & Casualty entities serving mid-sized companies. We are present in over 200 countries and territories either through our own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. In 2024, the integrated business of Allianz Commercial generated around €18 billion in gross premium globally.