KUALA LUMPUR, March 24 — Pakatan Rakyat (PR) may be on the verge of a break-up over hudud but Barisan Nasional (BN) is not likely to suffer the same fate, analysts said, claiming that even if Umno backs the controversial law, its allies would not dare quit the pact in protest.
This, some said, is largely because without Umno, BN’s remaining member parties may not be able to survive on their own.
Dr Faisal Hazis, a senior lecturer at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, agreed the parties would be unhappy with Umno’s backing of hudud but are at the same time aware that leaving BN altogether would do them more harm than good.
“That would be possible but if they quit, where can they go? In this type of electoral system we have, you can’t go alone and try to win on your own,” he told Malay Mail Online.
He cited MCA as an example, saying the party’s exit from BN would not put much of a “dent” in the coalition due to the its weak political form.
Even if BN parties such as MCA and Gerakan protest against Umno’s support for hudud, Faisal said it is only “expected of them” to voice out their concerns to avoid later being labelled in the next elections as having endorsed the Islamic penal code.
“Because I think Umno’s role in BN is such a dominant role, that you know other component parties by virtue of limited seats in last elections, I don’t think they have much bargaining powers,” he said, also noting the recent declaration of support by all BN parties towards coalition and Umno chief Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
Furthermore, Faisal said the long-standing coalition would likely be able to eventually work out a compromise among its member parties.
“I think Umno will try to explain to other parties that it’s a strategic move to break up PR,” he said, saying that the federal opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat was more inclined to break up over hudud than BN.
The seven-year-old PR pact is said to be on the brink of collapse following the failure of its member parties to agree on hudud, the controversial Islamic penal code that PAS insists on introducing in Kelantan.
With PAS refusing to back down from its goal and DAP just as determined not to acquiesce, talk is that the latter party may soon decide to suspend its cooperation in PR.
Umno may just be waiting for that to happen, Faisal observed, adding that this means the ruling party may not have to go to the extent of actually voting for PAS’s hudud bill when it is tabled in Parliament.
PAS succeeded last week in tabling and passing amendments to Kelantan’s Shariah Criminal Code II 1993 in its first step towards introducing hudud in the east coast state it governs.
It is now seeking to get two private members’ Bills approved in Parliament that would enable the state to enforce the Islamic law in Kelantan. But with only 21 MPs in the 222-seat Parliament, PAS would need the support of Umno’s 88 lawmakers to achieve this.
“If say Pakatan collapses before the (hudud) bill is introduced in Parliament, it might not be necessary for Umno to support the bill, because the objective has been achieved, because Pakatan has collapsed,” Faisal said.
Although Umno’s Kelantan state lawmakers voted in support of PAS’s hudud amendments last week the party’s national leadership has so far refrained from stating if it plans to do the same at the federal level.
BN’s non-Malay parties, including MCA, MIC, Gerakan and their east Malaysian counterparts, have publicly declared their objection to hudud but stopped short of threatening to quit the pact if Umno backs the law
A joint statement by all BN member parties, including Umno, is expected to be issued some time this week but it is still uncertain as to what this will say.
Political analyst Dr Samsul Adabi Mamat agreed that despite the uncertainty, BN would likely not split over hudud, as it has a clear mainstay party, Umno, in a coalition structure that is more “solid” than PR.
BN’s traditional politics of “consensus” would also ensure the coalition’s longevity, the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s associate professor said.
Dr James Chin said BN would not lose parties like MCA and Gerakan to hudud as they “cannot survive” outside of the coalition, with their votes mostly coming from the Malays that support Umno.
“They will not leave BN but will do something to signal their unhappiness,” the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute director told Malay Mail Online in an email response.
