DECEMBER 3 — Many analysts claim the single biggest reason for Donald Trump’s defeat was Covid-19. He was election-proof until a cataclysmic disease ravaged his American people and its wage economy.
Over time, other analysts would attribute historic Malaysian political shifts in the near future to the pandemic. This column hopes the shifts are accompanied by economic wellbeing and social cohesion for Bangsa Malaysia.
This is not new when it comes to disasters or unexpected pain. As the 1970 Bhola Cyclone forced factors to the Bangladeshi Civil War a year later, so did the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake accelerate the end of China’s Cultural Revolution and usher in laissez-faire economics.
In that vein, it already feels the pandemic’s tailor-made somewhat to revolutionise Malaysia’s stubborn system. How so?
Firstly, it’s resilient to change.
The stubbornness was well-evident in both Malaysia’s lengthy political time-warp until 2018, and how quickly the Pakatan Harapan government calamitously tripped over itself within two years.
The situation, therefore, was fertile for the safe return of the old order except it coincided with the pandemic.
PM Muhyiddin Yassin was sworn-in on March 1, 2020 — names a Cabinet on March 9, and a week later the movement control order (MCO) began.
The new coalition, Perikatan Nasional (PN), as expected brought together traditional politicians firmly married to the past.
Back in power, they did not intend to let the old ways die. They instead wanted to reignite them, those same ways which Pakatan dare oppose half-heartedly.
PN celebrates the monopolisation of power through patronage. To be fair, Pakatan was enamoured by power and did indulge in patronage as well.
However, Covid-19 denied PN the time to consolidate power. Instead a major distraction took up their time. A national effort to combat a disease ensued, and economic devastation of our wage economy redirected resources to people rather than political interests.
The longstanding weaknesses of our economy were exposed. Wage losses underpinned an over-reliance on foreign labour and our uncompetitive local labour market.
A cumbersome and bottom-heavy civil service relied on a minority to drive it. Which is why Covid-19’s simultaneous and instantaneous demands on all fronts — to engage broad society at all levels to comply; execute strategic regulations balancing health and economy; and restructure key public deliveries like education — overwhelmed the system.
What that means in short: the ruling politicians are stressed out presently and Malaysia’s 2021 economic prognosis remains weak.
There are simply too many wounds to band-aid the nation to recuperation. And that is Covid-19’s doing, or perhaps Malaysia’s undoing.
The election after next
Many argue the current Dewan Rakyat’s premature end with an election next year— thus the shortest serving lower chamber(2018-2021) .
But its replacement, or more importantly the coalition with the majority, will continue to be fragile.
Undeniable, PN rates its chances favourably based on Pakatan’s perceived incompetence or at least disjointedness.
But a weak economy and uncertainties about the future means even if voters on the basis of familiarity ultimately turn to PN rather than Pakatan — as seen in Sabah — they’d cast reluctant votes.
And just as in Sabah, with political allegiances fluid, more candidates are likely. After all, one MP can bring a government down. In three- or four-way fights, the winner may hold a simple majority but not an absolute majority. It makes for unsatisfactory outcomes.
Overall, PN might struggle for a strong majority. Still, even with a decent majority, infighting and autonomy may demote their majority to a lightweight one. Perpetual demands from ambitious partners can tire any prime minister.
Which is exactly as it stands now.
And the next government, with the burden of a growing deficit and limited tax revenues, would be forced to a consumption tax. The GST is inevitable.
All of the above underline the political instability caused by politics but the severity is multiplied by economic dreariness brought by the pandemic.
This continues till GE16 where an actual stable government may get formed. Which could well be held 2024 or beyond.
Why GE16 and not GE15?
Because for now, any winner of GE15 most certainly would lack the constitution to alter fundamental weaknesses in the system.
They’d expect the foreign labour conundrum to solve itself, businesses to offer correct and broad wages to Malaysians and defend entitlements under the guise of maintaining race preferences.
Is that a horrible thing to call?
That the impending election would be frustratingly inconclusive, and that Malaysians are to experience further turbulence until the following election?
Probably, but necessary.
The period between the next election and GE16 is when it begins to dawn upon voters, that PN’s “nothing is broken” narrative is massively flawed, and that Pakatan does not U-turn on everything even if it is too soft to lead.
The period also offers new players the chance to step up with an actual plan of action. And find the moral integrity to stay the course and not give in too quickly.
Covid-19 did not launch any of our problems, but it brought all our problems to a head in an unplanned fashion in quick time. We’ve been found out. The path will be hard and it will raise questions that make most Malaysians look the other way when confronted.
Malaysia was always due for a hard and long correction. It seemed impossible because internal forces prevented them and kept opponents weak and disillusioned. Muhyiddin would have stabilised by now if there was no Covid-19. But there is, and our history is heading for change. Even if at a slow burn.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
