Despite Dyana Sofya’s pick, poll shows Malays, Indians drifting from Pakatan

KUALA LUMPUR, May 22 — Convincing a cool Malay and Indian electorate will hold the key to a DAP victory in Teluk Intan where 90 per cent of the Chinese vote already favours Pakatan Rakyat (PR) pact, analysis by research firm Politweet.org has shown.

In the examination of 60,096 regular voters according to ethnicity and age, predicted support for PR among Teluk Intan’s 22,987 Malay voters remained low at slightly over 12 per cent, while rival Barisan Nasional (BN) led with an estimated 58 per cent.

The research house pointed out a trend where Malay voters below the age of 40 have started showing greater support for PR especially for those aged 22, while the older Malay community have shifted towards BN.

“It would appear that young Malays support PR while middle-aged and older Malays are on the fence or leaning towards BN,” it said in the analysis released last night, just about a week before the May 31 Teluk Intan polls.

With 44 per cent of Teluk Intan’s Malay voters aged between 21 and 40, PR may be able to push its current support given by the 22-35 age group from over 40 per cent to beyond 50 per cent “if the youth swing continues”, it added.

DAP took observers by surprise when it fielded Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, a 26-year-old Malay woman, as its candidate for a straight fight against Gerakan’s 53-year-old president Datuk Mah Siew Keong in the predominantly Chinese parliamentary seat.

Of Teluk Intan’s 60,349 voters, the Chinese is the largest group of voters at 42 per cent, while Malays and Indians form 38 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively.

Although PR has experienced a slide in Indian support by almost 10 per cent, it still retains a greater share at 25 per cent compared to BN’s 22 per cent.

Support for PR has declined as the age of Indian voters increase, with a peak for those aged 60 amid a general swing away from the pact by Indians aged between 27 to 67.

“After the swing away from PR, PR support has dropped from 34.18% to 25% of Indian voters. If this trend continues, then BN stands to increase their share of votes from Indians. However with 53% of the Indian electorate in the fence-sitter category it is hard to predict which way the voters will swing,” Politweet.org said.

How can BN or PR win?

Based on a calculation of 30,242 votes required for a victory, PR just needs to snag over 2,000 votes from fencesitters or those leaning  towards BN, Politweet.org said.

“For PR to win, they need to retain support from their existing voters (especially Chinese voters) and get 2,000+ votes from the fence-sitters and [BN-Leaning] voters. To achieve this, PR can push on the Malay youth swing and try to win back support from the Indian voters,” it said.

A BN victory would require a possible target of snagging 50 per cent of the undecided 7,870 voters and 21 per cent of PR’s supporters or 5,986 voters, but could prove “difficult to achieve” with young Malay voters and virtually all Chinese voters nodding towards PR, the research firm said.

While Malay voters’ support for PR remains low, BN cannot rely solely on the second largest ethnic group in Teluk Intan, Politweet.org said, suggesting that the coalition focus its attention on the Indian and Chinese voters.

“The swing to BN from Indian-majority districts is a good indicator and something for BN to build on.

“In our projections based on these statistics, 15% - 30% of Chinese voters need to swing over to BN in order for BN to win,” it said.