NOVEMBER 2 — According to the latest Merdeka Center survey, the approval rating of PM Najib among voters in West Malaysia has slipped from 54 per cent in August to 48 per cent now, and this is likely related to the reduced fuel subsidy announced October 2.
In the meantime, public concern with the economy ha also jumped from 54 per cent to 71 per cent, showing that economy is indeed the most important task of the government now. If the economy is not doing well, the prime minister’s approval rating is expected to move down further.
Sure enough the government has sensed public uneasiness over rising living cost, and has consequently increased next year’s BR1M amount to RM950 while exempting more than 900 services and goods from the GST and allocating RM100 million to assist rubber smallholders. These measures are meant to lessen the burden of those in lower and middle-income brackets.
That said, by increasing the BR1M amount and exempting too many goods and services from GST will result in a reduced new tax revenue of only RM690 million next year. To make things worse, the international oil prices have declined by about 20 per cent since June this year, resulting in an estimated RM4.4 billion in oil revenue loss.
For every 10 per cent of drop in oil prices, the government’s fiscal deficit will deteriorate by a further 0.2 per cent. As a consequence, reducing subsidies and introducing GST will not enable the government to meet the goal of slashing budgetary deficits. The government has planned to introduce a three-tier fuel subsidy mechanism next year, transferring the subsidy for individuals earning more than RM10,000 a month to those earning less than RM5,000.
The government is attempting to put the national coffers in better shape by making adjustments to the subsidies and tax revenue within such a narrow margin. However, this will not help if loopholes in the GST implementation is overlooked and international oil prices continue to be sluggish.
An economic downturn will very likely affect the position of Umno and Najib, as Pakatan is prowling for an opportunity to exert its influences by lifting the public emotions once again, not because of Anwar’s sodomy case but the national economy.
it is up to individuals to interpret whether Najib’s economic transformation program has produced the desired effects, but during my recent meetings with Chinese businesses in Alor Setar and Perlis, I was told the other side of the story.
The Perlis state government has already implemented the 70 per cent bumi housing quota, and menteri besar Azlan Man explained that the state had 90 per cent of bumi residents and if the state were to implement the housing quota based on racial make-up, then it would be 90 per cent for bumis and 10 per cent for non-bumis.
Irrational policies have resulted in an exodus of housing developers, and what takes the brunt is the national economy.
In addition to the economy, other factors that may affect the PM’s approval rating include political openness and efficient governance. The prevailing conservative atmosphere now does not augur well for a feel-good undertone among the people.
Prior to Najib’s 100 days in office, his approval rating soared to a high of 65 per cent, 19 percentage points higher than when he took over the post. His approval rating peaked at 72 per cent by May 2010, and was still at an encouraging 69 per cent by February 2012.
The higher rating back then could be attributed to the reforms introduced by the government, the moderate approach and a positive overall environment. Nevertheless, the reforms have died down now as extremist politicians make provocative remarks and the AG’s Chambers make selective prosecutions.
Sarawak chief minister Adenan Satem and Sabah state assembly speaker Salleh Said Keruak have manifested a more encouraging face of national politics, showing that the problem lies very much with the racial politics practiced in West Malaysia. The Umno general assembly to be held in late November will chart the future political direction of the nation.
The efficiency of governance is also reflected in our global rankings. According to the recent global college ranking by the US News & World Report, Universiti Malaya is the only local institution of higher learning that has made it to the top 500, at an appalling 423rd. UM only managed to score 31.2 points out of 100.
Malaysians’ perception of corruption, security and public transportation will also affect the approval rating of the government.
In Merdeka Center’s survey, the government’s approval ratings among the Malay and Indian voters have both slipped by 6 per cent although 3 per cent more Chinese correspondents are happy with the government now. This shows that approval ratings can change from time to time, and there is room for the government to improve its own acceptance. The question is whether the government is bold enough to effectuate the change in a bid to salvage its sliding approval rating. — Sin Chew Daily
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.
