NOV 19 — Every couple of years, around about this time, a strange fever begins to sweep across England.
There are no physical symptoms, but sufferers are afflicted by an unusual mental condition which removes their ability to form rational arguments.
Even more bizarrely, the virus only affects one specific sphere of mental activity: contemplation of the England national football team.
Yes, it’s time again for English football fans to throw aside the lessons of the past (and the facts of the present) and start to tentatively believe that this could be the one: this could finally be the occasion for The Three Lions to win their first international trophy since 1966.
With England safely qualified for next summer’s festivities in Brazil and the big kick-off less than seven months away, it’s time to fantasise about that magical moment in July when Steven Gerrard holds aloft the gleaming Jules Rimet trophy as the ticker tape falls in the delirious Maracana Stadium.
As the famous “Football’s coming home” song by Baddiel and Skinner asserted in 1996: “Thirty years of hurt, never stopped me dreaming.”
Not this time, though. This time, it’s different. The fever has lost its potency and nobody seems to have been infected; the general consensus is that England have virtually no chance of doing anything notable in Brazil. Getting through the group stage would be creditable, and anything beyond the last eight would be a miracle.
For confirmation, just look at the latest odds being offered by British bookmakers – bearing in mind that the markets are largely priced according to demand from the punters and therefore generally reflect the opinions of the masses rather than any objective analysis of odds-setters.
Brazil, as you would expect, are narrow favourites, closely followed by fellow South Americans Argentina, reigning champions Spain and perennial powerhouses Germany. Then there’s a big gap before the next group of teams: Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy.
Only then, currently ranked as eighth favourites with the British bookies, do you reach England, with odds in the region of 20 to 25/1.
Even that estimation is probably generous to England, with Roy Hodgson’s men apparently more likely to win the World Cup than Colombia and Uruguay, who will be playing in their home continent and can respectively call upon the services of two of the world’s top strikers, Radamel Falcao and Luis Suarez.
Another South American team regarded as bigger outsiders than England are Chile, even though they were mightily impressive in their tough qualifying campaign and eased to a comprehensive 2-0 friendly victory at Wembley as recently as last week.
And if Portugal can hold onto their narrow play-off lead against Sweden tonight, the odds for Cristiano Ronaldo et al will no doubt start to tumble as well.
Far from being amongst the leading contenders for the world title, then, England are marooned somewhere in the middle of the pack, with a place in the quarter-finals looking like a good achievement – which is probably a fair assessment.
Debate over the source of England’s steady decline has been ongoing for many years now, and will no doubt continue in the build-up and aftermath of our latest World Cup disappointment.
Many of the arguments focus on the supposedly detrimental role of the English Premier League, which has enjoyed such rampant commercial success it allows clubs to splash fortunes on the best talent from overseas rather than developing young English players.
I don’t buy that theory. I believe young Englishman would be given plenty of opportunities to play if they were good enough – even the richest of clubs would prefer to generate their own talent for nothing rather than handing another few million to Club X in France or Spain, but that’s not a realistic option because the quality of domestic players coming through the youth academies is simply inadequate.
Instead, I think the fundamental root cause is an old-fashioned mentality which permeates the country and hasn’t adapted to the changes in the game over the past three decades; until the critical mass of English people starts to think differently about football and therefore teaches young children to learn about the game in a new way, the decline will continue.
But what do I know? I’m not a qualified coach and I never played professionally. It could just be a simple case of too many foreigners in the Premier League.
Whatever the reasons, there’s little doubt that the current England squad is a million miles away from competing with the strongest nations.
Let’s not get carried away: they are not a bad team – they wouldn’t have qualified for the finals at all if that was the case – but the ability of players doesn’t come close to comparing with the Spaniards, Brazilians and Argentines.
England will have an opportunity to boost the nation’s confidence tonight, when a Germany side lacking many key players – Mesut Ozil, Philipp Lahm and Manuel Neuer will be rested – visit Wembley for a prestigious friendly.
But the greater likelihood is the opposite: the German second string will canter to a comfortable victory and even more doom will descend upon our collective assessment of the English team.
Maybe they will surprise us; but nobody is holding their breath. Thirty years of hurt might not have been enough to stop us from dreaming, but 47 years appear to have done the job.
World Cup fever? No thanks. But at least we’ve still got the Ashes.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
