LONDON, Nov 26 — The US dollar gave up earlier gains as some of the optimism over a US-China trade agreement faded.
The US currency had jumped to a two-week high against the safe-haven Japanese yen in Asian trading.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed issues related to phase one of a trade agreement and agreed to maintain communication on remaining issues.
Yesterday, China’s Global Times, a tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said the two countries were very close to a phase-one deal.
The dollar was last trading neutral at 108.96 yen, after rising as high as 109.205, its highest since November 12.
The euro was also flat versus the dollar at US$1.1016 (RM4.61), not far from the 11-day low of US$1.1004 it reached yesterday.
The Chinese yuan — the currency most sensitive to the US-China trade war — had risen to a one-week high of 7.0181 against the dollar, but was last trading at 7.0335.
“China and US agreed on a framework to resolve their phase-one issue, which is just a way of saying that they did admin work,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.
The next deadline for market participants to watch is December 15, according to analysts. That is when the US threatened to impose 15 per cent tariffs on US$160 billion of imports from China.
“China appears positive to the deal. The dollar could rise further to around 109.50 (yen) if US officials will visit China,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.
Last week, the Chinese government invited Lighthizer and Mnuchin to Beijing for face-to-face talks, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Overall, currency trading is slowing before the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
Traders are also increasingly pricing in tighter trading ranges for major currencies, based on implied volatilities.
One-month euro/dollar implied volatility has fallen to 4.15/4.40 per cent, the lowest in five years. Three-month volatility fell to a record low of 4.4/4.6 per cent.
The dollar/yen’s three-month volatility also stood at 4.775/5.025 per cent, the lowest since late April and near its historical lows above four per cent. Three-month volatility on the Australian dollar dropped to a five-year low of 6.12/6.42 per cent. — Reuters
