PETALING JAYA, July 25 — Umno and Barisan Nasional have been given an early opportunity in the Sungai Kandis by-election to regain some of the lustre and clout lost during their disastrous outing in the general election.

For Umno, the poll will not be about how the party is renewing itself; delegates voted last month to retain essentially the status quo despite the party being voted out of power by the rest of the country.

Instead, the first by-election since the 14th general election will allow the Malay nationalist party to kick the tyres of its new political vehicle as the last bastion of the Malays and Muslims against what it is playing up as an onslaught by the ruling Pakatan Harapan.

The poll will also allow Umno to hammer home the government’s languid pace in delivering its election pledges within 100 days.

While Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has insisted that the PH manifesto is not the Bible from which there can be no deviations, Umno is set to tap the Malay community’s views that a promise remains a promise.

The campaign is now in its fifth days and Umno appears to be gaining traction among voters with its laser-like focus on Malay-Muslim concerns.

On the opposite side, the PKR candidate is banking on bread-and-butter as well as quality-of-life issues for his bid to woo the 52,000-odd voters who are 72 per cent Malay.

Three people are vying for the seat — PKR’s Zawawi Ahmad Mughni, BN’s Datuk Lokman Noor Adam and independent candidate Murthi Krishnasamy — but only the first two are contenders.

With the overwhelmingly Malay composition of the seat, both men will be fishing in the same pond.

BN remains the underdog in the seat that PKR first won in 2008 and has kept convincingly since then.

Aside from the historical performance, analysts believe the euphoria from PH’s general election victory is still prevalent and that PKR is likely to cruise to victory.

That is not to say BN’s campaign is doomed. With the right message and proper delivery, Lokman may be able to at least force Zawawi to slog for the seat.

Also crucial is the eventual result’s lack of significance to the balance of power in the state. PH won 50 of the 56 seats in the Selangor assembly and there will be no risk to the administration if the coalition fails to bring Sungai Kandis home.

This may prompt the constituency’s Malay voters to express their feelings regarding PH’s recent policies via the ballot box.

While the Chinese and Indian voters are seen as firmly on PKR’s side, the Malay vote is less certain.

Another key factor is the extent to which PAS will come out for Umno and BN. The Islamist party has made way to ensure that Lokman has the best possible chance against Zawawi, but has stopped short of going to bat for its former rival.

However, it has urged its supporters to vote for the candidate most likely to uphold Malay-Muslim interests and to take into account the party’s hostility towards PH; in essence, this is as close to an endorsement of Lokman as it can go without outrightly stating so.

With this, PAS members and supporters — those who do not abstain, at least — may throw their support behind Umno and BN to help Lokman narrow the gap.

For observers, Sungai Kandis will also provide a glimpse of what life in BN will be like now that the coalition is no longer in power.

Of the 13 parties that previously made up the coalition, just three — Umno, MIC and MCA — remain and even the last two appear non-committal.

While Lokman is contesting as a BN candidate, neither MIC or MCA have come out to support his campaign.

Former BN chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak was also forced today to play down the absences by claiming the two allies were busy rebuilding.

Umno initially planned to contest using its own logo in Sungai Kandis, but changed its mind days ahead of nomination as party leaders felt then that there was still goodwill to the BN name as the country’s first and oldest political coalition.

Time will tell whether its assessment is correct, but the reality is that politics in Malaysia has experienced such upheaval that old loyalties may never be revived.

In Sungai Kandis, Umno may find the seed for its future endeavours in wooing Malay-Muslim voters on issues that most concern the community, but the seat remains PKR and Zawawi’s to lose.

Sungai Kandis will vote on August 4 in the by-election triggered by the death of Shuhaimi Shafiei on July 2.

The late Shuhaimi won the seat with a 12,480-vote majority over BN’s Kamaruzzaman Johari, PAS’s Mohd Yusof Abdullah, and PRM Hanafiah Hussein.

The constituency has 51,230 registered voters, comprising 51,217 ordinary voters and 13 absentee voters.