MARCH 5 — How do they see it, and how many will show up, which way will they choose?

Coalition partner’s impatience probably turns 2026 into an election year.

Speaking of an election, the usual chatter is about parties and candidates.

As in, wonder if certain coalitions are on the precipice, and fear if the grand unity friendship instituted post GE15 persists then all surprises are doused.

Within these umbrellas, or outside them, sit candidates who hope to be leaders.

That’s the supply side, how about a view of the demand side of the equation, the people who cast ballots. How do voters see it, and how many voters will turn up, and which way do they cast their votes?

Voters filtered

In this age of AI-dominated media, perception likely drives attendance and choice.

Yet old truths remain profound. Two angry online accounts are not as valuable as the single voter who turns up. 

Voters choose based on few issues, often one. Voters are very fickle. They are risk averse in the general and are unfortunately not as invested in the process as the politicians and their parties.

Today the discussion focuses on those who show up. While everyone interacts online with political information all year round, the power is totally in the hands of actual voters.

Turnout evens out the effect of a larger youth share of registered voters. Less than half of those below 35 are expected to vote, and 80 per cent of those above 45 are expected to vote. Essentially, those above 40 have a firm grip on the election outcome since they’d assiduously vote.

So, what do these likely voters look at? Again, this is from the vantage point of the average voter.

Economy (or am I going to feel pain)

There is a trade war ongoing in the world, but Malaysia is doing A-OK. If the ringgit marches up anywhere close to RM3.50 to the dollar by nomination day, the government will chest-thump from here to Tawau.

The Rahmah grocery credit is welcome among families, so are the various handouts to Malaysians. 

There is a culture of entitlement, and handouts are expected and therefore not necessarily rewarded with votes for the party in power. Yet, critically, they are expected.

This is not a financially disgruntled country, not yet. Not in 2026 or even 2027.

The economy is about perception. Look at the US. President Biden shepherded a good economy in 2024 but too many voters felt things were too expensive. Trump benefitted from perception despite positive economic findings.

Malay insecurities

Perikatan Nasional will seek to find a way to build a narrative of Malays being left out in an economy built for others.

But here is the kicker, these do work with a section of Malay voters, however, they have the opposite effect on other voters. 

They did max out the fears in 2022 and there is a sneaky feeling that shouting about oppression when they are engulfed in their own internal power struggles, that includes PAS, Bersatu and the ex-Bersatu troops, begins to sound hollow.

There’s the elephant in the room. DAP ministers have hardly put a foot wrong.

Despite misgivings about the insistence on UEC, Chinese schools and passive racism, there is a limit to goading.

It did not go down well that Jamal Yunos asked Teresa Kok to open a pig farm in her home a week before Chinese New Year. He was cross that the court forced him to auction personal effects to pay legal fees owing to her.

The economy and race-relations are interconnected, and Pakatan is ahead on this.

PM choices to pick

GE14 ended the debate about the value of a presumptive nominee to be prime minister.

Pakatan naming Mahathir Mohamad as its PM candidate took away stress.

No talk of whether Bersatu’s President Muhyiddin Yassin helms in case of victory, or PKR President Wan Azizah Wan Ismail to hold the post — as she is keen to do — till Anwar Ibrahim arrived back.

After the votes were counted on May 9, the wait was when Mahathir swears in, not if others are vying to be prime minister.

Average voters do not care generally whose name is on the ballot. They want to know how their choice impacts the selection of the prime minister.

Anwar is the head of Pakatan. Vote in enough Pakatan MPs and Anwar remains as PM.

No one is PN’s chief. If there are enough PN MPs, this will lead to many late-night meetings between PAS, Bersatu, ex-Bersatu and perhaps even Umno to discuss.

While hardcore PAS folks are just ready to leap into polling stations to tick the moon, swing voters may hesitate.

This is the clearest lead for Pakatan. Anwar is Pakatan’s only candidate. PN has six months to get its act together which is adequate but the noise emanating from inside the coalition does not assuage concerns.

A myriad of others

There are multiple issues which may impact voters but PN does not fancy them. Throws all its chips into identity politics. Pakatan can only beat who is in the ring. PN is the only viable large coalition.

Meanwhile, Hamzah Zainuddin is party shopping with Parti Keluarga Malaysia the key target.  Though, it is very clear that the leader of the Opposition has never run solo before, and news reports speak of the 13 MPs backing him, rather than 19 a week ago. 

As Zuraida Kamaruddin found out with her Parti Bangsa Malaysia, support is fleeting when the idea is absent.

Umno, in six years of jumping in and out of bed with PN and Pakatan, has lost its own sense of destiny. It gives an old mansion feel when it goes completely melancholic about nostalgia. 

It helps not that Najib Razak is missed by the base, a sizeable number loathe Zahid Hamidi as president, another part wants Mohamad Hasan and Johari Ghani to rise as top two and one part fantasises about Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar and other rejects to sweep back into the party.  

To top it all, MCA and MIC are perpetually sore dual anchors slowing down the Umno vessel. 

In June, Rafizi Ramli promises a reveal. Hate to be the wet blanket, however, Rafizi is prone to overestimating his promises. It might be a New Age solution no one — for probably sane reasons — has heard of before.    

Syed Saddiq Syed Rahman announced this week he is staying out of the Muda party election. He wants full acquittal from the Federal Court before returning. 

A new party built by the personality of its founding president without its symbolic head is just kidding itself.

To the voters, PN is too entangled, Umno lost in time, Rafizi an acquired taste and Muda is restless.  

Maybe DAP is not completely loco to ask for joint polls this year end. The competition threatens to give them a walkover. 

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.