MARCH 14 — It’s that time of the year again where everyone gets a little bit excited about the awards season and the kind of films that usually win these awards, and the end of this year’s awards season is coming with the impending arrival of the Oscar ceremony this coming Sunday, March 15 (or Monday morning for us Malaysians).
If you’re one of those who love to join the various Oscar prediction contests out there, here are a few tips to maybe help you win a prize or two.
Best Picture
If it was up to me, this year’s Best Picture award would be a straight fight between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, but since this is the Oscars we’re talking about, for a foreign language film to even be nominated in the Best Picture category is already a win.
And just by looking at the sheer number of nominations scored, the clear frontrunners here are Sinners and One Battle After Another, but after sweeping the Best Picture award at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Directors Guild and Producers Guild Awards, it is almost a certainty that this award will go to One Battle After Another at this year’s Oscars.
Should win: Sentimental Value
Will win: One Battle After Another
Best Director
The same reasoning for Best Picture should and most probably will apply to this category as well.
In addition to the undeniable momentum that’s been building for One Battle After Another director Paul Thomas Anderson, there is also the small matter of Anderson not having won an Oscar before, despite having films like Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, The Master and Phantom Thread in his filmography.
If there’s one thing that the Oscars love to do, it is to give an award that is long overdue to someone who’s long deserved it.
While I have immense respect for the subtle craftsmanship displayed by Joachim Trier in Sentimental Value, Anderson has deserved to win this award for a while now.
Should win: Joachim Trier
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor
Any one of the nominees should win this award on merit, that’s how good the performances have been across the board in this category.
My personal pick would probably be Wagner Moura for his performance in The Secret Agent, but a commanding win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for Sinners for Best Ensemble and with Michael B. Jordan taking home the prize for Best Actor, this looks like Jordan’s award to lose.
The fact that he played two characters in the movie should make things even more irresistible for the Oscar voters.
Should win: Michael B. Jordan
Will win: Michael B. Jordan
Best Actress
Probably the only “easy” category to predict this year. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) has won every major precursor award so far, sweeping up at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards, all of which share members/voters with the Academy, so it would be a major, major shock if someone else took home this award come Oscar night.
Sure, I’d love to see Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) or Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) take this home, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Should win: Renate Reinsve
Will win: Jessie Buckley
Best Supporting Actor
Probably the hardest major category to predict this year, as there hasn’t been any consensus choice or clear frontrunner in all of the precursor awards.
I’d personally give this one to Stellan Skarsgard for his excellent turn in Sentimental Value, but his win at the Golden Globes was followed by zero nominations for Sentimental Value at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
The closest we have to any sort of momentum in the precursor awards is Sean Penn’s performance in One Battle After Another, which nabbed him wins at the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, so the most logical choice is for him to win this one as well.
Should win: Stellan Skarsgard
Will win: Sean Penn
Best Supporting Actress
Another hard major category to predict, because the precursor awards have been split in this category. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) won at the Golden Globes and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) won at the BAFTAs, but wins at the Critics Choice Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards make Amy Madigan (Weapons) a very possible winner here, especially since the Oscars also love to reward veterans who very rarely get nominated.
Madigan is now 75 years old, and this is only her second Oscar nomination, so the odds are very good that she’ll take this award home as well.
Should win: Teyana Taylor
Will win: Amy Madigan
Best Original Screenplay
As much as I loved the screenplay for Sentimental Value, this category has one clear favourite – Sinners.
Sinners has won the Best Original Screenplay award at almost every single precursor awards ceremony, including wins at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice and Writers Guild Awards.
Unless you’re a high-risk high-reward kind of person when it comes to betting, there’s just no way that this one will go to any other film except Sinners.
Should win: Sentimental Value
Will win: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another has dominated the precursor awards in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, with wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics Choice and Writers Guild Awards, so a win for any other film would be a major upset, even though a strong case could be made for any one of the other nominees.
I’m especially fond of how beautiful and lyrical the script was for Train Dreams, but films this small very rarely win Oscars, so I’ll be more than happy with another win for Paul Thomas Anderson and One Battle After Another in this category.
Should win: Train Dreams
Will win: One Battle After Another
Best International Feature Film
This is another tough category to predict. Personally, I think it’s a toss-up between Norway’s Sentimental Value and Brazil’s The Secret Agent, both very different films that I love for very different reasons.
However, with nine Oscar nominations including for Best Picture, that shows that there are enough fans of Sentimental Value in the Academy to make a win very likely.
But, I won’t discount an upset win for The Secret Agent as well because it’s also a Best Picture nominee, and Brazil has a pretty good track record of wins in this category, so we definitely cannot discount the power of the Brazil block when it comes to votes.
Should win: Sentimental Value
Will win: Sentimental Value
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
