AUG 2 — The choices have presented themselves to Azmin Ali.
To be as bold as Anwar Ibrahim himself and take the fight to his old boss, or to remain steadfast to the spirit of 1998 and instead shove Rafizi Ramli from the grown-ups’ table.
To fight for president or fight off the pretender to remain deputy president. Probably the latter.
However, the higher prize is not as elusive as Azmin may imagine because it will come down to over 800,000 party members. Anwar has announced his candidacy, but he has been away from operations and PKR is a Selangor party in terms of members and it’s Azmin’s state.
He may be closer to them through his party tentacles, rather than Anwar.
Though it appears Azmin won’t go for broke, but instead choose to remind all in the party that he is No. 2 and firmly set to be No. 1 eventually, by wiping out Rafizi in a straight fight.
The bad blood from Rafizi’s previous claim that Azmin’s circle inside Selangor was corrupt, would be natural motivation for the former mentri besar to work hard to trounce him.
The fight will be stiff though the outcome will be predictable.
Traditional lines
The rift between Azmin’s cartel and Anwar’s loyalists is no secret. It is less clear than that actually because the ex-Selangor mentri besar also spends time to express his loyalty to Anwar.
What it is rather is a battle for who comes next in the party, after Anwar.
While Rafizi is now the presumptive candidate for the other camp, he does not have the most cordial relationship with many on his side due to his abrasive style.
There will be more unity of purpose inside Azmin’s cartel when compared to Rafizi’s loose coalition of support.
Half of winning is showing up
The divisional leadership determines how many will show up on voting day. In the past, numbers who showed up to vote have been abysmally low, as much as only 10 per cent of the overall membership. I suspect in this election it will rise as PKR is now in government.
The 22 Selangor divisions will make or break the candidates, due to high membership numbers. Only a few believe Rafizi’s reach inside the state extends beyond Pandan, where he was MP before.
The others are expected to be affected by different degrees of Azmin by the time voting happens.
The curveball here will be the 300,000 new members who joined the roll after the general election on May 9. They’ve been in the party for less than three months, but they constitute 37 per cent of the party now.
How many are eager Malaysians euphoric after the general election, or Umno/MCA/MIC members fleeing a sinking ship or any kind of opportunists? The RM2 entry price, member registration, is not prohibitive and now they are kingmakers for the race to replace Mahathir Mohamad.
Which way they’d vote is as important as bothering to show up to vote. This is where the strength of division chiefs matter. Regardless if new members are inducted electronically or via the division, all information at each division or the branches below comes from the division.
Division chiefs have large spheres of control and therefore the man with the most number of division chiefs on their side, especially Selangor chiefs, would be at an advantage.
Anwar stumping
It is certain Anwar won’t stump for Azmin but the question would be if he is willing to set aside his neutrality to help Rafizi.
If Anwar only whispers to associates, the words would not hold the same force as him peddling a version of greatness on stage. He has to openly endorse Rafizi in order for his loyalists to vote unabashedly for the Invoke boss.
Government office
Azmin is economy minister, and therefore at a time BN-appointed GLC directors are shuffling out, there would be a lot of empty seats to fill. The minister decides this, and he has ample space to assist long-term party supporters in the interim. Those who can end up affecting the party polls.
While the country cleans up, and continues debates over what constitutes undue pressure, those in power may retain their “win at all cost” posture, at least for this party election.
Back door remains
Even in defeat, Rafizi would be appointed by Anwar into the party as secretary-general probably, to be his point man to challenge Azmin within the party. This also means that the party might send him to Dewan Negara as a senator, as the first stage to Cabinet.
Therefore, there is an upside irrespective for Rafizi. His sponsor, Anwar, will care for him.
The options are limited if Azmin loses. He has built up a resume in the last four years as Selangor mentri besar and now the economy minister, no less. Without a position inside the party, he’d rely on members of his cartel to keep him relevant. He will be more dependant on Mahathir, as his stock plummets in his own party.
So, on the balance, it is crystal clear it is advantage to Azmin.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
