MAY 1 — For many weeks now, the world has been in a state of shock. Images of overcrowded hospitals in Italy and New York, stay at home orders, lockdowns, loss of jobs and income and declarations of a looming global recession have left many in a state of depression.
This week, however, a glimmer of hope has emerged. Human trials for a vaccine started, some drug treatments look promising and the first wave of infections seems to have peaked in Italy, Spain and New York.
Lessons from the Antipodes
Suppression strategies in Australia and New Zealand have shifted this week to optimistic goals of elimination.
Both countries enforced extreme social distancing measures in late March when cases were relatively low. A little over a month later both have seen the number of new daily Covid-19 cases drop dramatically.
In Australia. new daily cases are around 10 and in New Zealand the number is approaching zero. Thoughts of herd immunity or waiting it out until a vaccine is developed have vanished.
This week, New Zealand announced that it was moving from Alert Level 4 (Lockdown) to Level 3 (Restrictions) whereby gatherings of up to 10 people are allowed.
In parts of Australia, schools opened this week and people are now also allowed to meet in groups of up to 10.
Modelling by the Singapore University of Technology and Design suggests that by mid-May, New Zealand can eradicate the disease completely and that by early June the same can happen in Australia.
There is the very real risk of a second wave and further lockdowns, but with the gradual easing of restrictions and a vigilant process of testing and tracing, it is possible that by year’s end, larger social gatherings may be possible.
While it is too early to be congratulatory, it does appear that Australia and New Zealand have not just flattened the curve, they have smashed it.
The key to their success has been a combination of 1) ring-fencing the elderly and vulnerable 2) palliative policies to soften the social and economic impact and 3) effective and extreme lockdown against the cultural grain for a period of some six weeks to let the virus burn out.
Curiously, the lessons from the Antipodes “new world” have their roots in ancient texts and edicts of the “old world.” Together they offer hope for the rest of humanity.
Lessons from the Old World
Hippocrates, the father of medicine, wrote in the 5th century BC that most cases of “acute disease comes to a crisis in fourteen days” and recommended 40 days confinement for the ill.
A Mosaic Law from the 7th century AD states that a diseased person should be isolated for seven days, and if their condition is unchanged they should be isolated for another seven days.
In Islam’s Sahih Al-Bukhari Hadith it states that ”if you hear of an outbreak or a plague in a land, do not enter it; but if the plague breaks out in a place while you are in it, do not leave that place.”
The 10th century AD Islamic scholar Ibn Sina, devised the concept of “Al Arba’iniya” (meaning 40 in Arabic) as a 40-day isolation plan for diseased communities.
Venetian traders adopted the idea, renaming it “quarantena” which also translated as 40.
Similarly in the 14th century trading port of Ragusa (now known as Dubrovnik, Croatia) “trentina” was introduced, meaning a 30-day period of isolation.
In Nepal there is a 1,000-year-old tradition from the Newari civilisation where traders travelling along the silk-route had to self-isolate for two weeks on their return.
It was a cultural ritual that was widely practised until a few decades ago. These isolation guides are from different eras and different cultural contexts but are strangely similar.
They have been applied to numerous pandemics over the past several hundred years from the Black Death to the Spanish Flu, with surprising effectiveness.
These ancient laws and customs are strikingly similar to what we are seeing with Covid-19. Its symptoms onset within 14 days, and depending on severity last for several weeks.
Moreover, most of the world has been in lockdown or some form of extreme social distancing or “quarantine” for more or less 40 days.
Having nearly flattened the curve, restrictions are now being lifted. It is yet to be seen of the laws of old hold true for modern society, but they do offer insights of substance.
A new international hope
While quarantine may be required for international travellers for some time, The Economist reported this week that the New Zealand deputy prime minister suggested a “trans-Tasman bubble” where citizens of Australia and New Zealand could travel freely.
The Australian Home Affairs Minister has also talked up the idea and the prime ministers of both countries have been discussing trans-Tasman flights.
The suggestion is that the “bubble” be extended to smaller Pacific Island nations and thereafter other countries in the region that have eradicated the disease and have tight border and quarantine regulations.
Given that many of the more successful countries at managing the Covid-19 pandemic are in the Asia-Pacific (South Korea, for example, has just achieved zero new daily cases), it is possible that the region itself may become a “bubble” that is able to help kickstart the global economy.
Extreme social distancing, quarantine and selective nation-to-nation travel arrangements is by no means a perfect solution to the Covid-19 pandemic.
It has significant social and economic costs, but it is a solution with historic precedent.
While we were totally underprepared as a union of nations to manage this pandemic, as a global community we are far more equipped with scientific knowledge and communication tools to deal with it than our ancestors.
But we shouldn’t forget the prophecy of ancient lore to the current crisis, and we should take solace in the fact that this is not, nor will it be the last, pandemic that humanity has endured.
* Dr Matt Benson is an Australian geographer specialising in complex systems and human settlements. He is a Programme Director for Think City and is based in Penang, Malaysia.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer(s) or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
