APRIL 15 — Now that the Covid-19 pandemic curve has flattened, thanks to the effective implementation of the movement control order (MCO) with its concomitant social distancing measures, the key to ensure the elimination of the virus from our nation is the inculcation of a sense of heightened social responsibility among the rakyat.
When social responsibility becomes pervasive, this will ensure the internalisation of the MCO “culture” — social distancing, observing regularly personal hygiene like washing hands, avoiding gathering and wearing a mask in public — by all without the need for enforcement by the authorities.
When the observance of the MCO culture becomes the salient feature of the third phase of the MCO which starts today, the result — a second phase of flattening of the curve to its floor will occur, which will lead to zero infection as shown by the diagram.
What the graph is telling us is the first phase of flattening of the curve occurs when the daily infection figure reaches its peak. The curve cannot flatten for as long as the peak has not arrived.
Based on the researches of JP Morgan and the World Health Organisation (WHO), which in turn are based on a forecast modelling of the Wuhan experience, Malaysia will reach its peak today (mid-April) with a total infection of 6,300 cases which translates into a daily infection figure of between 200 to 250 cases.
For the record, as of yesterday Malaysia’s total infection is 4,987. Today, most likely it will cross the 5,000 mark but it is still a far cry from the 6,300 predicted by JP Morgan and the WHO.
To use the term of analysts “punting” on the quarterly GDP growth of a country, we can say that Malaysia beats analysts’ forecast when it comes to total infection.
However, for the daily peak, which was recorded at 235 infections on March 26, it is within analysts’ forecast of 200-250 cases.
What this means is during the first MCO (March 18-31), the curve has flattened already despite the many infringements by the rakyat on the MCOs. It was good that the government still continues to extend the MCO because this will make the curve continue to plateau instead of going up.
By right, the extension of the MCO should have caused the curve to fall gradually.
This would have been the case if after the daily peak has been achieved, there was a consistent daily drop in the infection figure but as we can see from the daily announcement of the Ministry of Health (MoH), the daily infection figures perform like a yo-yo.
One reason for this yoyo performance is the failure to get 100 per cent support for the MCO culture alluded earlier. Even with the threat of fines and going to jail, the MCO measures are being infringed on a daily basis.
Another reason could be the failure to have 16,000 Covid-19 tests done on a daily basis as announced previously by the MOH. It faces problem of getting enough test kits that could ascertain the result with accuracy within 24 hours.
In fact, no country, even the advanced ones, has produced a test kit on Covid-19 that could yield accurate result within 24 hours.
But at least, we should be thankful enough that the plateaued curve does not go up.
The question now is when will it go up? Basing on statistics alone, it will go up if in the coming days and weeks, the daily infection figure exceeds the current peak which is 235 cases on 26 March. This will be the case when in the third phase of the MCOs, the people still continue to violate MCO measures.
The next question to be asked is, when will the flattened curve slope downwards?
This will happen when we see a consistent daily drop in the infection numbers in the coming days and weeks.
This drop will be deep once the daily infection figure changes from a three-digit number to a two-digit figure, and deeper still with a change to a one-digit figure, signalling the arrival of the second phase of the flattening of the curve to its floor which will then taper to a zero infection.
And what will bring us to this state of affair? As I mentioned earlier, it’s social responsibility to observe all the measures put in place during the MCO by all of us, including businesses that have been allowed to open.
With the occurrence of the second phase of the flattening of the curve, which some experts say will come about in mid-May, perhaps then it is time to lift the MCOs in mid-May. But wait a minute, what about if people straightaway become complacent and put down the drain all the MCO culture they have so patiently observed during the MCO?
Well, the curve might go up again especially in view of Ramadan when the non-obligatory tarawih prayers will surely draw huge crowds to the mosques, followed soon after by the festive atmosphere of “balik kampung” during the last few days of Ramadan plus the coming of Syawal with Hari Raya’s family gathering and visiting.
It is for this reason that some people are thinking that the MCO should be extended all the way after Hari Raya!
Remember the Wuhan lockdown was instituted on January 23 just two days before the festive Lunar New Year holidays.
But I think we all can help the government in making a decision to end the MCO if we can give the policymakers an assurance that we will behave well during the current MCO and continues to observe the MCO culture even after the MCO is lifted!
* Jamari Mohtar is director, media & communications at think tank EMIR Research.
** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
