MARCH 25 ― We are into the second week of the movement control order (MCO) and we are still wondering whether the MCO would be extended. Many have raised concerns that the Covid-19 epidemic may take months or even years to run its course. There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel.
However, I believe we can predict the course of the epidemic in Malaysia by looking at the progression of Covid-19 in China.
China first instituted a lockdown on January 23. Analysing the chart from China's National Health Commission (NHC), the number of new cases reached its peak after two weeks of lockdown. From there, the number of new cases started to drop and reached very low levels about a month later.
Superimposing this on the Malaysian context, we started the MCO on March 18. Our number of new cases is expected to peak some time towards the end of the two-week MCO.
If the measures we take during the MCO are effective, we would see a gradual drop in new cases to very low levels after one month, approximately in early May.
This scenario would likely come to pass if we do two important things.
Firstly, all of us must play our roles to minimise spread of the virus. Obey the MCO. Stay at home. Practice social distancing and in particular, stay away from our elderly loved ones, who are most susceptible to severe infection. Practice good personal hygiene. Avoid (touching) face, surfaces and crowded places, with frequent use of hand sanitisers. Wear a mask with the slightest cough or flu as covid can present with very mild symptoms.
Secondly, our government may need to make that painful but necessary decision to extend the MCO for at least another four weeks. As disheartening as it may sound, this measure would be the best and quickest way to come out of this outbreak. Ask China. They are now literally free from Covid-19. If we do not take this drastic action, the epidemic would drag on, more people would be infected and more lives will be lost.
People are frustrated at being confined at home. Many businesses are already suffering, some close to insolvency. Many workers who are paid daily wages, living hand to mouth would have problems supporting their families. As doctors in the frontline, this loss of income pales in comparison to the risk of being infected and passing the infection to our loved ones.
But now is the time for all Malaysians to hunker down for one last push. Put aside our political differences, forget about happy hours at the pubs, forego the Ramadan bazaars. There is indeed light at the end of the tunnel. It is not very much further to go. Together, we can defeat this virus.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
