SEPTEMBER 9 — Early of this month, Davao City of Philippines was bombed by Abu Sayyaf. More than 10 people were killed and at least 60 people were injured. Meanwhile, a few days ago, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, a senior ISIS, was killed in Syria. He is the spokesperson of ISIS and widely believed is the leader of EMNI.
A few weeks ago, two policemen were attacked by two suspected militants who were killed in Balashikha, near Moscow. Meantime four suspected militants were killed by Russian Special Forces (Spetsnaz) in St. Petersburg and three of the militants are known terrorists from the Kabardino-Balkharia region of the North Caucasus. The Spetsnaz found weapons and explosive devices in their apartment.
Last month, Thailand was under attack. Within 24 hours in five provinces, 11 bombs were detonated. At least four people were killed and more than 36 people were injured. The Thai authorities had said it’s unclear whether it is local sabotage or global terrorism. The attacks are well coordinated and mainly targeted tourist hotspots frequented by foreigners.
In Charleroi, Belgium, two policewomen were attacked with machete by a suspected ISIS supporter/terrorist/sympathiser and was killed by police. In Canada, a known supporter of ISIS, Aaron Driver@ Harun Abdurahman, was shot dead by RCMP when he discharged an explosive device inside the taxi and harming the taxi driver. The RCMP believes he is in an advance stage to launch an attack using bomb in a Canadian city.
Both men in Belgium and Canada are to be considered as lone wolf inspired by ISIS. At this point in time, it is unclear whether both men received instructions or orders from ISIS’s handlers or radicalised by themselves using available materials posted by ISIS on the Internet.
Early this month, the Indonesian authority foiled a terrorist attack by arresting six suspected terrorists in Batam. The Indonesian police believed that this group is inspired and funded by Bahrun Naim, who is a well-known ISIS terrorist residing in Syria now. Their target was Marina Bay in Singapore. If the attack is successful, then, it will be one of the first transnational terrorist attack in this region which is similar with the Mumbai attack.
ISIS’s evolution
ISIS has evolved from Al-Qaeda. ISIS has started off a sprout of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) by a Jordanian terrorist who is known as Musab al-Zarqawi. After the US military departure and rising power of Shiites in Iraq’s government where Sunnis were targeted and exempted from power.
This becomes a motivating factor which has allowed AQI to recruit Sunnis. Some of them are former military officers of Iraqi army. The AQI main purpose is to establish a Sunni Islamist state in Iraq. In 2006, Zarqawi was killed and an Egyptian Abu Ayyub al-Masri took over and renamed it as Islamic State in Iraq (ISI). Later, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took over the leadership of ISI when al-Masri and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi were killed in 2010.
In 2013, al-Baghdadi rebranded the group as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) after ISI forces extended its power in Iraq and Syria. By 2014, Al-Qaeda has severed its ties with ISIS because of infighting between ISIS and Al-Nusra Front — Al-Qaeda affiliated group from Syria which is disagreed to join with ISIS. It’s widely believed that most of the leaders of ISIS were detained by the US at Camp Bucca in South Iraq. In 2014, Al-Baghdadi has proclaimed the conception of a caliphate or Islamic state after ISIS took over Mosul.
The external structure of ISIS
Interestingly the attackers and planners are not directly connected. The link person will be a new convert or clean person who is not within the radar of intelligence and security forces but they also will have no direct contact with the attackers as well.
Normally the attackers are controlled by handlers.
Even though in the Paris attacks the authority has identified Abdelhamid Abaaoud as a ringleader but I reasonably believe that he is a handler rather than the link person. To eradicate violence and terrorist attacks anywhere in the world the brain of the said attacks i.e. the planners and link persons need to be eliminated. By detaining and killing handlers and attackers, the potential terrorist attacks can be stopped. Therefore the security and the intelligence forces/agencies must allocate sufficient time and workforce to track down the planners and link persons to dismantle any future wide-reaching terrorist attacks. Both of them are the root cause of any terrorist attacks.
Further, the Movida attack in Puchong, the E8 of PDRM probably has arrested handlers and attackers. They also probably can identify the planners in the caliphate. In my opinion the most important and dangerous people will be the link persons. These people are just ordinary people who are not imposed any danger until an attack is actually unfolded. Most likely they also have been asked not to expose themselves and this actually increases the probability for future attacks in Malaysia.
Apart from that, EMNI also wanted to have ex-criminals who can be intermediate to organised crime to smuggle in terrorists from caliphate to intended countries in Europe. For Asia especially Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia, the unit wanted veteran militants who have battlefields experience with Al Qaeda and its affiliates like Jemaah Islamiyah (South East Asia), Abu Sayyaf (Philippines), Ansar al-Khalifah (India), Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (Philippines) and Jundallah (Pakistan).
Future possibilities in Malaysia
Recently in Singapore eight suspected terrorists of Islamic State in Bangladesh (ISB) from Bangladesh were detained and sentenced. Meanwhile, the Dhaka attack is conducted by Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and two of the terrorists who were killed studied in Malaysia. One of the largest groups of immigrants in Malaysia is from Bangladesh. With current development in Malaysia and Bangladesh, the suspected ISIS supporter/terrorist/sympathiser can be part of a large community in Malaysia because it is much easier for them to blend into. This can pose a serious threat for Malaysia’s national security. Therefore the authority must create a network of informers within this community. They also must educate their community leaders and employers to recognise any signs of radicalism within that person and notify the relevant authority.
Even though al-Adnani was killed, his “trainees” are already around the globe. With the statement from ISIS for retaliation, the increase of terrorist attacks around the world is vastly conceivable. The increased numbers of terrorists who are under 20 years old involved with attacks in Germany, France, Belgium and Malaysia are distressing. Therefore any single lead information needs to be investigated thoroughly by the security and intelligence agencies in Malaysia.
Additionally the family and friends of the known supporter/terrorist/sympathiser need to be monitored all the time. Further, their “unknown” friends who are in communication with them via social media (not only Telegram, Facebook or WhatsApp) need to be tracked down by using latest technology. The terrorist is good at encryption. Therefore the agencies must have a pool of experts to decipher the coded messages to identify the cell members, location, motive, targets and so on.
According to Combating Terrorism Centre in New York, the use of children who are known as the “Cubs of the Caliphate” by ISIS increased drastically in past months. There is a video posted by ISIS on child soldiers from Indonesia and Malaysia at a training camp in the Al-Hasakah region of Syria. Apart from that, PDRM has also detained suspected terrorists who are under 18 years old.
A few weeks ago, in Iraq a child who is 12 years old was detained with a suicide bomb vest. In March this year, a young suicide bomber who is 16 years old detonated his explosives and killed more than 29 people and wounded more than 60 people in Iraq.
This is another possibility in Malaysia. Therefore the teachers, parents, neighbours and friends need to be vigilant to notice any drastic changes within the persons that they know before and they are obliged to report to the relevant authority to avert any undesirable incidents in future.
ISIS has advance propaganda tools. They have their own magazine (Dabiq) and news agency (Amaq). Recently ISIS published a Malay-language newspaper i.e. Al-Fatihin. This newspaper caters to South East Asia.
By creating Katibah Nusantara Lid Daulah Islamiyyah, also known as Katibah Nusantara, ISIS has identified the importance of the region for the future. To gain popularity and support, ISIS is going to escalate their attacks not only in Malaysia but throughout this region.
The attempted attacks in Malaysia and successful attacks in the Philippines and Indonesia have indicated ISIS’s seriousness to pursue the creation of the caliphate within this region. The collaboration between intelligence and security agencies within this region is vital to minimise the impact or stop any attacks that are going to occur in future.
Conclusion
ISIS is always evolving. From a very structured organisation or state, it’s now transformed itself as an unstructured organisation by engaging in guerrilla warfare through small groups of people or lone wolves. This is unprecedented.
* R. Paneir Selvam is chairman of the Association of Legal and Policy Researcher in Kuala Lumpur.
** This is the personal opinion of the writer and/or the organisation in whose name it is written and does not necessarily reflect the views of Malay Mail Online.
