KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 1 — There is speculation once again about whether Muafakat Nasional, the stillborn co-operation between PAS and Umno after GE 14, will be revived now that PAS and Bersatu’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition seems to be in tatters after the Perlis debacle.

Analysts are so far sceptical that the grumbling would lead to a full-blown rupture that sees Umno abandoning the unity pact. 

“It is unlikely for Umno to withdraw from the government. The public call to withdraw support for the unity government is largely performative, a display of posturing as the party positions itself ahead of its general assembly in January,” said Adib Zalkapli, managing director of Viewfinder, a political risk consultancy.

Below, they discuss some hypothetical scenarios.

The numbers game

Malaysia’s lower house of parliament, the Dewan Rakyat, has 222 seats. A simple majority to govern requires 112 seats. 

Currently, the Anwar administration is supported by approximately 153 Members of Parliament:

• Pakatan Harapan has 81 seats
• Barisan Nasional (BN/Umno): 30 seats
• Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS): 23 seats
• Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS): 6 seats
• Others (Warisan, Muda, KDM and independents): 13 seats

Syaza Shukri, political science researcher at the International Islamic University Malaysia, said the Anwar government could potentially remain in power with a thinner, simple majority on the back of continued support from the East Malaysian political blocs.

If Umno and its BN partners (30 seats) were to exit, Anwar’s support on paper would drop to 123 seats, above the 112-seat threshold required to sustain a government. 

However, this will be contingent on GPS and GRS staying in the unity coalition.

“If Umno pulls out, my biggest bet is that the East Malaysian bloc would still stay with Madani because there is no immediate reason for them to defect,” she said.

“They’ve become quite autonomous and secondly by staying with Anwar they would have more leverage to get more policy items in favour of Sabah and Sarawak... but if Umno leaves and GPS and GRS follow suit, then Anwar’s government would technically fall.”

Sabah and Sarawak parties have historically prioritised regional autonomy. 

Seeing that Anwar has made the fulfillment of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 a key government agenda, analysts believe the Eastern Malaysian blocs would likely prefer to keep its political arrangement with Anwar intact for the rest of the term.

Umno quits but backs Anwar

Ong Kian Ming, political analyst and former Bangi MP for DAP, believes Umno’s central leadership would feel it’s more strategic to remain supportive of the Anwar government at least until the 16th general election (GE16), both for political stability and to continue receiving crucial funding for their constituencies.

To contain grassroots anger, he said Umno could quit the government but still provide support for Anwar to maintain a super majority.

“Umno is not likely to pull out from the government as this would mean losing access to federal government positions and resources which are very important to Umno leaders,” he said. 

“(But) In the unlikely scenario that Umno pulls out of government, it will still likely support the Madani government until the next general election so that its MPs will continue to enjoy their government allocation,” he said.

Umno rekindles ties with PAS

While Anwar may hold onto power, Umno’s departure will still carry political risks. One of them is the liability to accusations that the Anwar government does not represent any Malay interest.

“In this scenario, the unity government might lose a comfortable majority. So while it may still be legally the government of the day, there would be a perception that it is less legitimate because of the pull out. Perception-wise there is no ‘Malay’ party in the government,” Syaza said.

Ong said Umno’s departure could give the party more incentive to pursue an alliance with PAS, a co-operation that could result in the consolidation of Malay support and swing enough marginal seats currently helmed by Pakatan Harapan, and the friction between PAS and Bersatu in PN have bolstered this possibility.

“Umno is more likely to weigh its options to see how it can work with PAS to have an electoral pact in the run-up to GE16 as a way to get back into power... they will likely use the Melaka and Johor state elections to ‘test’ this out,” he said.

The risks of a ‘leaner’ government

While 123 seats are sufficient to pass a Budget (Supply Bill), it presents several strategic challenges, analysts said.

There could be legislative limitations; the government would not meet the 148-seat threshold required to amend the Federal Constitution, stalling major institutional reforms.

The Anwar government would also be vulnerable to discontent: In a 123-seat scenario, the defection of just 12 MPs would be enough to collapse the government.

This gives small parties and even individual “kingmaker” MPs significant leverage over the government.

What happens next?

If Umno were to withdraw, Anwar would likely seek to prove his majority through a vote of confidence in Parliament to silence critics and signal stability to investors.

Alternatively, the King could play a role in determining if Anwar still commands the “confidence of the majority” based on statutory declarations from party leaders.