MAY 5 — The conditional movement control order (CMCO) marks our venture into a “semi-normal” state of affair. Following the CMCO, mixed responses follow.
Some support the partial resumption of the economy. For many, it signifies returning to work and to finally have an income.
Others, on the other hand, oppose due to concerns of public health risks. For them, resuming businesses means exposure to more people, and subsequently, a potential relapse. This backlash, of course, is due to lack of public confidence. The public must be assured that it is safe to return to work. Public confidence, at the outset, must be instilled.
In any case, both views are valid.
Yet, while the world continues to wage war against the Covid-19 pandemic, it is prudent that we start looking at the next phase of the battle. Our next enemy over the horizon is an unprecedented recession.
This pandemic and its aftermath are unprecedented. They are above politics, economic or other self-serving interest. It is premature to state that the CMCO gives precedence to profit over public health. While a pandemic kills millions of lives, a recession destroys millions of livelihood. The aftermaths are equally alarming.
Indeed, it is irresponsible to resume businesses if the infection rates are steadily increasing. However, presently, that is not case.
When asked about when normalcy will return, Bill Gates, founder of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, responded: “My answer is always the same: when we have an almost perfect drug to treat Covid-19, or when almost every person on the planet has been vaccinated against coronavirus. The former is unlikely to happen anytime soon…Which leaves us with a vaccine.” (Bill Gates: What you need to know about the Covid-19 vaccine).
Closer to home, Health Director-General Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah states that the movement control order (MCO) was not meant to completely eradicate the pandemic (Malay Mail, May 2, 2020: Dr Noor Hisham: MCO to flatten Covid-19 growth, not eradicate it).
The message is clear. The pandemic is here to stay. The burden, therefore, falls on us to keep the infection at bay by adhering to the “new norms”, i.e. social distancing and maintaining hygiene.
It may require 18 months, ideally, to develop an effective vaccine. It takes longer to develop natural herd immunity against the infections.
Therefore, it is not viable to shut the economy until everyone becomes vaccinated. Recession, just like the virus, does not wait.
In fact, consumer spending already changes drastically. Cash are being preserved instead of typically spent on goods and services. Most people chose to remain at home. Nobody wants to get infected or infect others.
This shift of behaviour makes businesses harder to sustain. Investment becomes depleted. Bankruptcy and winding-up become widespread. Eventually, economic recovery becomes hindered.
To face a recession without any preparation risks an even severe downfall. The CMCO must be balanced between protecting lives from the pandemic while, at the same time, preserving the economy. This is not an easy task. Nevertheless, it is essential.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
