MAY 9 — The drain of Malay votes away from BN as deduced from the results of the Rompin by-election could more or less offered a glimpse into BN’s possible defeat in Permatang Pauh. The reason? BN is mainly plagued by GST and other negative issues.
BN has anticipated landslide victory in Rompin so that the momentum could push the ruling coalition to another triumph in Permatang Pauh, Anwar’s home ground. Unfortunately, BN not only failed to score an impressive victory in Rompin, it couldn’t even secure its fundamental Malay support base.
In a rural constituency like Rompin, even the residents could feel the pinch of GST, let alone those living in semi-urban Permatang Pauh.
Indeed the majority votes of both BN and Pakatan have been slashed in these two by-elections, which is a normal phenomenon given the low turnout rates. As such, the right parameter to look into should be the percentages of votes secured by the candidates.
In 2013 general elections, Umno clinched 65.52 per cent of votes in Rompin vis-à-vis 32.55 per cent for PAS. In this by-election, the percentages have been 60.57 per cent and 37.93 per cent respectively. In other words, Umno’s support has been trimmed by 4.95 percentage points.
There are some 87.7 per cent Malay voters in Rompin, coupled with the supposed return of Chinese votes for BN, an almost 5 per cent lower support rate should be seen as something quite serious.
As for Permatang Pauh, Anwar Ibrahim clinched 58.56 per cent of votes during GE13. Even though Kak Wan only managed 57.09 per cent this time, the 1.47 per cent cut in support rate is still way better than Umno’s loss in Rompin.
In Permatang Pasir and Penanti where Malays make up 73 per cent and 76 per cent of all the voters respectively, Kak Wan’s support rates are 63% and 57 per cent. This shows that indeed some of Umno’s supporters have swung in favor of PKR.
Given the facts that BN gave its best shot to campaign in Permatang Pauh while PAS was all alone in Rompin, coupled with the reality that Pakatan Rakyat is in its worst shape now, BN’s showing in both by-elections is downright unglamorous, particularly so for Umno which has always wanted to consolidate the party’s grip in the Malay community.
Based on the estimates by DPM cum Umno deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin during last year’s Umno general assembly, if BN were to lose 2% more of its support rate in the next GE, the ruling coalition would likely lose a simple majority in the Parliament, thus its legitimacy to form a new federal government. There is no way Umno should shrug off the warning signals from these two by-elections.
Why has Umno lost a few percent of Malay votes in a largely rural constituency with so many Felda settlements? Perhaps as Mahathir has said, rural folks might not have any idea about the 1MDB issue, but it is the GST that has caused the people to suffer higher living cost. This has somewhat influenced the way people voted.
Facing mounting pressure from Mahathir to resign, if Umno’s poor showing in both by-elections were to begin to take its effect within the party, then PM Najib is in for much bigger trouble ahead. Given Najib;s cautious attitude, there are chances that some of the existing polices might be reversed, including subsidy rationalization, triggering more frustration among the people.
There are several things we should take note of the two by-elections. Firstly, voters remain very much more concerned about their own interests. BN’s accusations of a “recycled” candidate (Kak Wan) and privatization of Permatang Pauh have not worked. BN still needs to run the country properly and bring down skyrocketing goods prices.
Secondly, PAS’ hudud law controversy is proven a futile effort to lure Malay votes, but it has somewhat discouraged non-Muslims who used to support the party.
The by-election results also show that any swing from one camp to the other has been insignificant. Umno’s support rate of about 60 per cent in traditional Malay rural constituencies remains superior over PAS/PKR..
In predominantly Chinese constituencies, even those some of Pakatan’s supporters have swung back to BN, the magnitude is not enough for MCA or Gerakan to make any remarkable gain in their support. These two parties still need to work much harder.
In mixed constituencies, DAP and PKR still have an edge over BN, while PAS might be defeated due to the drain of non-Muslim votes.
The bad thing is that PAS might misinterpret the message from the Rompin outcome, further stepping up its advocacy for more conservatism. Meanwhile, due to PAS’ influences in Malay areas, DAP and PKR are unlikely to make a quick decision on their relationship with PAS.
Umno could present internal shock due to its poor showing in both by-elections. However, it is impractical for Malaysians to anticipate an imminent reform within Umno or a decisive restructuring of Pakatan Rakyat. The current political stalemate is still here to stay for some time. — mysinchew.com
* This is the personal opinion of the writer and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.
