MAY 8 ― If the by-elections in Rompin and Permatang Pauh are, like analysts say, a kind of referendum for Najib, then the results for Rompin by-election should come as more of a concern than reassurance.
Rompin is a fight that is not going to deliver much surprise. Indeed, the BN candidate won as many had anticipated. The question lies with the percentage of votes won and how the Malay and Chinese voters had voted, and which between GST and hudud had bigger impact on the final outcome
Umno's Hasan Arifin won with a slashed majority of 8,895 votes, sharply down by 6,219 votes compared to the impressive majority of 15,114 votes during GE13.
What has contributed to the drastically reduced majority votes of BN this time? There are many ways we can try to interpret this phenomenon, one of which is the lower turnout (from 85.9 per cent down to 74 per cent). People who turned up at the polling centers were fewer, from 44,966 to 38,697. Looking at these figures, indeed the number of people casting their votes has been 6,269 fewer. But, even if all these six thousand odd voters turned up, they might not all vote for the BN.
Instead of pouting the blame squarely on the 11.9 per cent lower turnout this time, why not conduct a more thorough post-mortem to find out what has caused the lower turnout and the significantly reduced percentage of votes and majority votes?
Compared to May 2013, the percentage of votes won by the BN candidate this time has slid from 66.8 per cent to 61.5 per cent. On the contrary, PAS' percentage went up by a remarkable 5.3 per cent, from 33.2 per cent to 38.5 per cent This is what caused the dramatic drop of BN's votes by 6,219 votes while PAS' votes only fell marginally by 25 votes.
Although PAS conceded defeat, the party should take pride that even some Chinese voters had swung back towards BN, the party still managed an improved showing in the election. But, will such an outcome spell the possible trend towards more conservatism and radicalism?
There are three things that we need to mention here. Firstly, of all the 38 polling stations, PAS won in five, against one only in GE13, which is a major improvement. Secondly, the votes garnered by PAS candidate at channels 3 and 4, mostly from younger voters, increased noticeably. Thirdly, the hudud law issue did not seem to affect the party's support rate among Malay voters. In its stead, Umno seemed to have paid a bigger price from the GST impact.
As we all know, rural areas and Felda settlements are traditionally Umno's stronghold. Although Umno has managed to retain this traditional stronghold, the significantly reduced majority and percentage of votes are not a good sign for the party. Could this be the start of Umno and BN losing their rural constituency advantage?
Could Mahathir's verbal attacks on PM Najib be another factor that eroded BN's advantage in Rompin in addition to the GST issue? And will Mahathir bank on this situation to further exert pressure on the PM, thus deepening the crisis of existing Umno leadership?
Of course, BN has also made some gains in the form of returning Chinese votes, showing that Chinese Malaysians are indeed resistant to PAS and its hudud advocacy. This nevertheless should not be a cause for relief for both MCA and Gerakan, for in polling stations with about 15 per cent of Chinese voters, BN still performed badly at channels 3 and 4 made up mainly of younger and middle-age voters.
This shows that young Chinese voters are still very much resistant to the BN. This is a political reality BN will continue to confront in the run-up to the next general elections.
In short, the Rompin results do not give the PM much credit but will sink him to deeper dilemma. The results of the upcoming Permatang Pauh by-election is yet another major test awaiting him. Even if BN is not able to wrest the seat from PKR, at least it must trim some of its majority votes.
This is the least that could be required of the PM, and should serve as an important basis for him to cling on to power.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.
