LONDON May 31 — European shares opened weaker today and Wall Street was tipped for a fall, as surging oil prices fanned fears of further acceleration in global inflation, forcing the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to keep raising interest rates.
Markets ignored signs that China’s economic pain may be abating amid easing Covid-19 curbs and focused instead on the inflation outlook, as Brent crude futures dashed above US$123 (RM538) a barrel, a two-month high, and a Fed governor backed further interest rate hikes to tame prices.
Oil may have further upside, analysts warn, citing Europe’s decision to slash Russian oil imports, high US summer demand and the easing of Chinese lockdowns at a time of tight global crude supply.
With US inflation running more than three times the 2 per cent goal, Fed Governor Christopher Waller yesterday advocated 50 basis-point rate rises until there was a “substantial” reduction in inflation.
His comments, which dampened hopes of a rate hike pause in September, came hours after data showing German inflation rose in May to its highest in nearly half a century at 8.7 per cent. Price growth was last this high during the oil shocks of 1973/74.
“It all depends on inflation now,” said Francois Savary, CIO of Prime Partners, a wealth manager in Geneva.
He said stock markets were not out of the woods despite a rebound from mid-month troughs. That rebound was spurred by perceptions that inflation may have peaked and a pullback in Fed rate hike expectations.
“What happens to markets depends on whether we see some normalisation in inflation in the second half of the year,” Savary said.
The German inflation data strengthened the case for an outsized European Central Bank rate hike in July and sent short-dated German yields to the highest in more than a decade.
Ten-year Treasury yields, shut yesterday for a US holiday, jumped as much as 10 bps before easing to trade 6 bps higher at 2.81 per cent. While still 40 bps below their early-May highs, yields have inched off six-week lows hit recently.
Euro zone inflation due for release later today is expected to come in at a record 7.7 per cent.
MSCI’s global stock index is set to end May with a small loss, its first monthly fall this year, while a pan-European index slipped 0.4 per cent today.
Futures for the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes were down 0.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively.
China curbs eased
The mood was more cheerful in Asia earlier, when China unveiled policy support details, including cash handouts for hiring graduates and support for internet companies’ offshore listings.
China’s official PMI for May also showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April.
That allowed Chinese blue chip shares to rise 1.6 per cent while MSCI’s index of Asian shares outside Japan was up 0.7 per cent.
The news from China lifted the Australian dollar although it later gave up those gains to trade 0.2 per cent lower versus the US dollar. The regional fallout from China’s slowdown was also evident in Japan, which logged a sharp fall in April factory activity.
“Whether Shanghai could deliver an effective and sustained opening up is key,” said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance Securities Hong Kong, regarding the easing of Covid-related measures.
The US Treasury yield bounce lifted the dollar index off one-month lows, allowing it to rise 0.25 per cent. The euro slipped 0.4 per cent against the greenback to US$1.0736. — Reuters
