KUALA LUMPUR, May 12 — The Rt value, or the average number of persons who would be infected by a Covid-19 positive person in Malaysia over a seven-day moving window, is 1.12 as of May 11, Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said today.
Today is the first day of a nationwide movement control order (MCO) that will last until June 7, although Sarawak has opted to retain the conditional movement control order (CMCO) name while implementing tighter measures, while Sabah has retained its SOPs that were in place under CMCO despite the MCO label.
In his daily updates on Facebook on the Covid-19 Rt figures for Malaysia and its individual states, Dr Noor Hisham said the Covid-19 infectious rate or R0/Rt figure based on estimates using daily cases on May 11 for the entire Malaysia is 1.12.
This is based on observed cases on a seven-day average for the entire Malaysia.
For Rt or the effective reproduction number, a figure higher than 1.0 would mean the Covid-19 virus is spreading fast.
For over a month now, the Rt for Malaysia has been more than 1.0. The last time it was at 1.0 was April 8, when the daily number of new Covid-19 cases in Malaysia was still over 1,000 but less than 2,000.
With the number of new Covid-19 cases breaching the 2,000 mark every day on April 15 until April 27, and breaching the 3,000 mark almost every day from April 28 to May 11 (except for two days each where cases were above 2,000 and above 4,000), the Rt value for Malaysia has largely hovered above 1.10 during this period.
As for the Rt value for states estimated on a 14-day moving window, the highest as of May 11 would be Kedah at 1.28 average new infections for every infected individual, followed by Terengganu (1.23), Pahang and Perak both at 1.22, Negri Sembilan and Melaka both at 1.20, Penang (1.17), Selangor (1.15), Johor (1.13), Kuala Lumpur (1.10), Putrajaya (1.04), Sarawak (1.0), Kelantan (0.96), Sabah (0.91), while Labuan was recorded as having three cases and Perlis had zero cases during this 14-day period.
This is based on a table attached in Dr Noor Hisham’s Facebook post.
A note in the table in Dr Noor Hisham’s Facebook post said that a 14-day window was used for the states’ Rt estimate, in order to decrease inaccuracies and extreme variable R value estimates in states with low case numbers and with widely fluctuating case trends. This would however also produce R value estimates that are less sensitive.
Like the Rt value for Malaysia, the Rt value for the states also changes daily, with figures as of May 10 for example showing the highest being Kedah at 1.31, followed by Terengganu at 1.28, Pahang (1.23), Penang at (1.21), Melaka at (1.20), Negri Sembilan and Perak both at 1.19, Selangor (1.15), Putrajaya (1.14), Johor and Kuala Lumpur both at 1.11, Sarawak (0.99), Kelantan (0.98), Sabah (0.92), and three cases each for Labuan and Perlis.