Analysts Ilham Centre predict Pakatan to win 100 parliamentary seats and Johor

Attendees don Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad masks during the Ceramah Kebangkitan Rakyat in Ayer Hitam May 5, 2018. ― Picture by Shafwan Zaidon
Attendees don Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad masks during the Ceramah Kebangkitan Rakyat in Ayer Hitam May 5, 2018. ― Picture by Shafwan Zaidon

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KUALA LUMPUR, May 8 — Independent research firm Ilham Centre today said Pakatan Harapan (PH) could secure about 100 out of 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

In addition to Penang and Selangor, its executive director Hisomudin Bakar said PH’s chances of winning Johor are also very high. 

At the parliamentary level, he said PH can comfortably win 77 parliamentary seats, while Barisan Nasional (BN) could probably retain 56 seats.

As for PAS, he said only seven seats — mainly in the east coast — would go to the Islamist party.

“Assuming there is a tough fight in some seats, PH could win more than 100 parliamentary seats to take over Putrajaya.

“As for states, Johor is likely to go to PH, while we will see a close fight between PH and BN in Kedah and Perak,” he said in a statement.

He said seats with about 75 per cent Malay majority are no longer BN’s safe seats because of the influence of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM).

“This strategy has also changed the theory of a three-cornered fight that was previously seen as a benefit to BN.

“The strength of Dr Mahathir’s stature and PPBM is seen as enough to attract Malay votes,” he said.

Even attacks made against the former prime minister, Hisomudin said, were seen as an advantage for Dr Mahathir and his coalition.

These attacks, including attacking Dr Mahathir’s health and body, he added, had in fact increased the former’s popularity.

“This also includes the decision to ban PPBM’s logo and the ability to get (former Cabinet ministers) Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz, Tan Sri Rais Yatim, and Tun Daim Zainuddin onboard,” he said.

Like in Johor, Hisomudin explained that the people were not angry with Umno, but were just unhappy with Datuk Seri Najib Razak and the attacks against Dr Mahathir.

“This has made people to pity Dr Mahathir and inadvertently given Pakatan free publicity,” he said.

Another reason why PH could win this election, Hisomudin said, was because the bulk of voters was around the age of 39.

He added that this group of people were among those who participated in the Reformasi movement supporting Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in 1999 and thus, could be the determining factor in deciding who wins tomorrow.

Hisomudin pointed that although PH lost to PAS and BN in the conventional political campaign such as erecting flags and banners, the coalition has, however, successfully executed a series of mega ceramah that attracted extraordinary turnouts.

Hisomudin said his team had monitored 165 parliamentary constituencies for over a month to collect this data.

His team, he said, had conducted the research on a micro-level and covered all localities.

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