KUALA LUMPUR, April 18 — GE14 is due to take place in three weeks’ time, and political parties have wasted no time in announcing their prize candidates for key parliamentary and state seats.
While speculation about the candidates in some constituencies continues to dominate local news reports, what is almost certain is that the battle is expected to be tight in many places.
Many analysts say this election — which sees incumbent Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak face one of his predecessors and Malaysia’s longest serving prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad — will be a closely fought one.
Malay Mail takes a look at the eight “hot” seats where the results could potentially indicate the broader electoral sentiment.
P121 Lembah Pantai (Federal Territories)
Over the past decade, Lembah Pantai has become one of the most coveted jewels for all major parties during elections, mainly due to it being an urban seat in the Federal Territories with a large Malay electorate.
Besides that, a large number of voters here comprise the urban poor, seen as the key demographic that any party has to win over in order to triumph in the national elections.
The constituency threw one of the biggest surprises of the 2008 elections when voters elected then 28-year-old Nurul Izzah Anwar over Umno veteran Tan Sri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil.
Izzah repeated her feat with a narrow triumph over former Federal Territories Minister Datuk Seri Raja Nong Chik Zainal Abidin in 2013, with an 1,800-vote majority.
After 10 years, Izzah is expected to be moved to another constituency, and the task of defending the seat will now likely fall to her former aide and PKR communications director, Fahmi Fadzil.
This sets up another David vs Goliath battle as Raja Nong Chik, who has continued to serve the constituency and provided aid to the urban poor there despite his 2013 defeat, is expected to have another go at the seat.
Fahmi’s task will become even more complicated with PAS throwing its hat in the ring by contesting Lembah Pantai for the first time. Fauzi Abu Bakar will be their candidate for the constituency.
Lembah Pantai could become an indicator as to how many votes PAS can garner in an urban constituency, while also serving as a benchmark for the sentiments of the urban poor towards BN after a decade.
P148 Ayer Hitam (Johor)
In 2013, DAP strategically moved some of its key leaders from Selangor and Penang to Johor to begin an offensive to reinforce the party’s strength in the southern state, with the charge being led by key party strategist Liew Chin Tong.
Having gone from Penang to Kluang and ultimately helping DAP capture several key seats in the south-western coast of the state which has a large Chinese population, Liew is taking another calculated risk by challenging MCA deputy president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong in Ayer Hitam.
Wee has been the MP of Ayer Hitam since the formation of the constituency in 2004, and his position has never been threatened, winning with a comfortable 7,000-vote majority in the 2013 elections.
Yet, Liew has decided to take on Wee as part of DAP’s strategic move to contest and possibly defeat top MCA leaders in their own strongholds, which could also be indicative of the larger support among the Johor populace for the Opposition coalition.
P4 Langkawi (Kedah)
The jewel of Kedah will undoubtedly be Pakatan Harapan’s most important focal point, not just for the state, but for its chances in taking over Putrajaya. Its prime ministerial candidate, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, was announced as its nominee for the constituency on Sunday.
While he would undoubtedly have a nostalgic appeal as the man who spearheaded the island’s transformation from a rural backwater to a tourist destination, the fact remains that the Langkawi electorate has never come close to voting out BN.
BN has never won less than 60 per cent of the total votes cast in Langkawi in 23 years since the constituency was created, and the incumbent Datuk Nawawi Ahmad, who might be fielded again, won by a comfortable 11,000-vote majority in the last elections.
As such, winning Langkawi itself would not be an easy task for Dr Mahathir, coupled with the fact that PAS is also likely to contest the seat. PAS contested the seat in 2004 and retains a strong support base in Kedah, and thus could split the vote for Pakatan Harapan.
With the decision to contest Langkawi, Dr Mahathir is relying on his legacy on the island to help him get elected to Parliament after a 14-year absence.
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P108 Shah Alam (Selangor)
The fight in Shah Alam is expected to be a watershed for the battle for Malaysia’s richest state, Selangor. Capturing the state capital would be vital for any party that has ambitions of forming a government in Selangor — and a three-cornered fight could be most intense in this constituency.
Despite much speculation, Pakatan Harapan is expected to allow Khalid Samad, the two-term incumbent, to try and defend the seat. However, he is likely to face an assault from both BN and PAS.
BN have made winning back Selangor one of its key targets for GE14, and its division chief there, Datuk Azhari Ahaari, is expected to contest the seat, while PAS is speculated to field preacher Ahmad Dusuki Abd Rani.
Khalid won the seat in 2008 and 2013, both under PAS tickets. His 2013 victory came with a 10,000-vote majority, but he faced an unpopular candidate as BN controversially fielded Datuk Zulkifli Noordin, who had allegedly insulted Hindus during one of his speeches.
Azhari is bound to draw more votes as he is not a divisive figure, and with PAS commanding a strong following in the constituency as well, Khalid will face an uphill battle to defend his seat.
P189 Semporna (Sabah)
The Opposition’s charge in Sabah is being led by Parti Warisan Sabah, formed by former Umno vice president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, who is the incumbent Semporna MP.
He is expected to defend his seat, representing a litmus test for whether his popularity in the constituency trumps the popularity of Umno in the parliamentary seat, and also serving as a yardstick to see if Shafie can indeed influence a strong showing for the Opposition there with his party.
Shafie has served five terms as Semporna MP, consistently obtaining 90 per cent of all votes cast during elections, with his lowest tally being 76 per cent of the votes during a five-cornered contest in 2004.
In 2013, Shafie won by a resounding majority of 20,000 votes, leaving only 15 per cent of the vote for his PKR opponent.
Shafie’s majority has also grown gradually since 2004, and it remains to be seen if he can maintain that invincibility while contesting outside a BN ticket.
P76 Teluk Intan (Perak)
Another potential heavyweight clash as part of DAP’s strategy to take on BN’s big guns on their home turf could take place in Teluk Intan.
After narrowly losing the 2014 by-election by over 200 votes, DAP has announced that it will field its Perak chief Nga Kor Ming to square off against Gerakan president Datuk Mah Siew Keong.
Mah defeated DAP’s Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud by a small margin in 2014, but just a year prior, DAP’s late MP Seah Leong Peng recorded a convincing 7,000-vote majority over Mah. DAP also won the seat in 2008, after M. Manogaran defeated Mah with an 1,800-vote majority.
Mah has served the constituency since 1999, or the equivalent of three terms. The 2014 victory also won him a spot in Najib’s Cabinet line-up.
This will not be the first time Nga has squared off with a top BN leader. In 2008, he handed MyPPP president Tan Sri M. Kayveas a shock defeat in Taiping, winning by a 11,000-vote majority. He repeated the victory margin in 2013 against MCA’s Datuk Tan Lian Hoe.
P146 Muar (Johor)
While GE14 is dominated by the battle of elder statesmen on both sides of the political divide, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM)’s 25-year-old youth chief Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman will be putting his political credentials to the test by taking on Umno’s Datuk Seri Razali Ibrahim in Muar.
Razali is a native of Muar and will be seeking a mandate for a fourth consecutive term. However, PPBM and Pakatan Harapan believe Syed Saddiq has a chance of doing even better than PKR’s 2013 candidate Nor Hizwan Ahmad, who only lost by 1,600 votes to Razali.
In fact, Razali’s majority has been slashed in the last two elections, but PPBM’s ambition of capturing the seat could be complicated by a challenge from PAS, which is also fielding its own candidate, Haji Abdul Aziz Talib.
P82 Indera Mahkota (Pahang)
Pakatan Harapan’s secretariat chief Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah will once again battle PAS information chief Nasruddin Hassan, in a repeat of the 2013 election when Saifuddin, then with Umno, surprisingly lost to Nasruddin in Temerloh while PAS was still with Pakatan Rakyat.
However, both politicians’ chances could be scuppered by Umno, which will also be fielding its own candidate.
PKR’s Fauzi Abdul Rahman won by a 7,000-vote majority in the 2013 elections, but a three-cornered fight along with PAS and Umno will unlikely yield such a huge majority for any party.
Saifuddin quit Umno in 2015 and joined PKR. He lost to Nasruddin by a 1,000-vote majority in Temerloh in 2013. He is also the former deputy higher education minister.
